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Winters Mill Falcons (17-2)

Region: MD 2A

State: MD

Coach: Courtney Vaughn

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/25	WESTMINSTER, MD (13-5)	MD 4A	86.8		L	7-	8		-0.225
3/29	FREDERICK (2-10)	MD 3A	64.6		W	21-	2		0.000
4/01	CENTURY, MD (12-4)	MD 2A	87.7	8	W	17-	16	ot	0.350
4/03	at Middletown, MD (11-4)	MD 2A	78.5		W	17-	8		0.050
4/07	at South Carroll (8-6)	MD 1A	81.1		W	18-	9		0.175
4/08	NORTH HAGERSTOWN (1-11)	MD 2A	60.0		W	19-	0		0.000
4/10	at South Hagerstown (0-10)	MD 2A	53.4		W	20-	0		0.000
4/15	WALKERSVILLE (9-7)	MD 2A	78.8		W	16-	4		0.050
4/18	SETON KEOUGH (3-13)	MD IAAM A	82.5		W	22-	11		0.075
4/19	MARYVALE PREP (5-11)	MD IAAM A	86.9		L	12-	13	ot	-0.325
4/23	at Hereford (9-10)	MD 2A	82.2		W	14-	11		0.250
4/24	at Francis Scott Key (5-9)	MD 2A	74.0		W	19-	4		0.000
4/29	at Liberty, MD (15-2)	MD 2A	90.4	4	W	12-	11		0.400
5/01	at North Carroll (5-10)	MD 3A	79.2		W	18-	12		0.175
5/10	CLARKSBURG (2-9)	MD 2A	59.5		W	21-	1		0.000
5/13	WALKERSVILLE (9-7)	MD 2A	78.8		W	18-	3		0.050
5/14	MIDDLETOWN, MD (11-4)	MD 2A	78.5		W	16-	10		0.000
5/16	vs. Centennial, MD # (14-4)	MD 3A	87.0	10	W	11-	10		0.250
5/21	vs. Towson HS # (14-5)	MD 3A	87.2	9	W	14-	13	2ot	1.275
# Neutral site			78.2						2.55

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/25	H	Westminster, MD	7-	8	-1	-1		-0.99	-0.11
3/29	H	Frederick	21-	2	19	25	––	-0.99	-5.72
4/01	H	Century, MD	17-	16	1	-4	++	-0.99	5.07
4/03	A	Middletown, MD	17-	8	9	8		0.99	0.79
4/07	A	South Carroll	18-	9	9	3	+++	0.99	6.28
4/08	H	North Hagerstown	19-	0	19	29	–––	-0.99	-9.85
4/10	A	South Hagerstown	20-	0	20	33	–––	0.99	12.79
4/15	H	Walkersville	16-	4	12	8	++	-0.99	4.50
4/18	H	Seton Keough	22-	11	11	7	+	-0.77		3.65
4/19	H	Maryvale Prep	12-	13	-1	3	–	-0.77		-3.94
4/23	A	Hereford	14-	11	3	0	+	0.99	2.99
4/24	A	Francis Scott Key	19-	4	15	13		0.99	1.52
4/29	A	Liberty, MD	12-	11	1	-6	+++	0.99	6.75
5/01	A	North Carroll	18-	12	6	3	+	0.99	2.61
5/10	H	Clarksburg	21-	1	20	29	–––	-0.99	-8.78
5/13	H	Walkersville	18-	3	15	8	+++	-0.99	7.50
5/14	H	Middletown, MD	16-	10	6	10	––	-0.99	-4.20
5/16	N	Centennial, MD	11-	10	1	0		0.00	1.03
5/21	N	Towson HS	14-	13	1	-1	+	0.00	2.43
									0.00	-0.29

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/29	H	Frederick	21-	2	5.72
4/08	H	North Hagerstown	19-	0	9.85
4/10	A	South Hagerstown	20-	0	12.79
4/15	H	Walkersville	16-	4	-2.00
4/18	H	Seton Keough	22-	11	-1.00
4/24	A	Francis Scott Key	19-	4	-1.52
5/10	H	Clarksburg	21-	1	8.78
5/13	H	Walkersville	18-	3	-5.00
10-goal correction: 1.45

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	185.		Natl CCR Rank	37
Natl Poll Vote	96.		Natl Poll Rank	39
Natl Power Rating	89.06		Natl Power Rank	48
Natl SOS Rating	74.52		Natl SOS Rank	239
Natl Quality Win Rating	2.55		Natl Quality Win Rank	6
W-L Pct Rating	0.89		W-L Pct Rank	88
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	17-2		Ave Goal diff (all )	8.7
Wins/Losses (top 5)	1-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	1.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	4-0		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	1.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	4-1		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	0.6
Wins/Losses (last 3)	3-0		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	2.7


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