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Winchester Thurston (2-12)

Region: PA WP D4

State: PA

Coach: Adriane LaRussa

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Rank	Score				COR
4/08	at Franklin Regional, PA (14-6)	PA WP D4	75.8	5	L	2-	15		0.000
4/10	at Oakland Catholic, PA (13-5)	PA WP D4	73.3		L	6-	10		0.000
4/11	at McDowell (6-4)	PA WP Ind	70.3		L	4-	8		-0.075
4/15	at Yough (6-8)	PA WP D4	68.4		L	6-	11		-0.200
4/17	at Latrobe (14-7)	PA WP D4	71.3		L	6-	9		-0.100
4/18	at Vincentian Academy (8-10)	PA WP D2	71.5		L	5-	16		-0.025
4/21	BALDWIN HS, PA (5-12)	PA WP D3	70.4		L	4-	7		-0.175
4/23	at Ellis School (3-8)	PA WP D4	68.1		W	9-	8		0.325
4/24	UNIVERSITY HS, WV (7-7)	PA WPSLA	65.9		W	15-	12		0.200
4/29	FRANKLIN REGIONAL, PA (14-6)	PA WP D4	75.8	5	L	3-	19		0.000
5/01	OAKLAND CATHOLIC, PA (13-5)	PA WP D4	73.3		L	7-	17		-0.075
5/06	YOUGH (6-8)	PA WP D4	68.4		L	11-	12		-0.275
5/08	LATROBE (14-7)	PA WP D4	71.3		L	7-	14		-0.150
5/13	ELLIS SCHOOL (3-8)	PA WP D4	68.1		L	5-	11		-0.250
			66.4						-0.80

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
4/08	A	Franklin Regional, PA	2-	15	-13	-16	+	1.43	3.49
4/10	A	Oakland Catholic, PA	6-	10	-4	-10	+++	1.43	6.16
4/11	A	McDowell	4-	8	-4	-7	+	1.43	3.03
4/15	A	Yough	6-	11	-5	-2	–	1.43	-2.79
4/17	A	Latrobe	6-	9	-3	-6	+	1.43	3.49
4/18	A	Vincentian Academy	5-	16	-11	-9		1.43	-1.68
4/21	H	Baldwin HS, PA	4-	7	-3	-3		-1.43	0.48
4/23	A	Ellis School	9-	8	1	-3	+	1.43	3.86
4/24	H	University HS, WV	15-	12	3	2		-2.21		1.34
4/29	H	Franklin Regional, PA	3-	19	-16	-14	–	-1.43	-2.36
5/01	H	Oakland Catholic, PA	7-	17	-10	-7	–	-1.43	-2.69
5/06	H	Yough	11-	12	-1	1		-1.43	-1.64
5/08	H	Latrobe	7-	14	-7	-4	–	-1.43	-3.36
5/13	H	Ellis School	5-	11	-6	0	––	-1.43	-5.99
									0.00	1.34

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/08	A	Franklin Regional, PA	2-	15	-3.49
4/18	A	Vincentian Academy	5-	16	1.00
4/29	H	Franklin Regional, PA	3-	19	2.36
5/01	H	Oakland Catholic, PA	7-	17	0.00
10-goal correction: -0.01

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	65.		Natl CCR Rank	1383
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	65.34		Natl Power Rank	1383
Natl SOS Rating	54.26		Natl SOS Rank	1603
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.80		Natl Quality Win Rank	2151
W-L Pct Rating	0.14		W-L Pct Rank	1841
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	2-12		Ave Goal diff (all )	-5.6
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-14.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-14.5
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-9		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-7.9
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.7

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