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Winter Springs Bears (14-5)

Region: FL Dist 3

State: FL

Coach: Steve Efland

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/06	at Winter Park (12-6)	FL Dist 6	73.6		W	13-	10		0.225
2/08	ST. EDWARD'S (4-11)	FL Dist 8	67.3		W	17-	8		0.000
2/12	at Lake Brantley (18-4)	FL Dist 4	80.7	3	L	17-	19	ot	-0.150
2/16	vs. Pine Crest # (14-6)	FL Dist 12	74.5	10	W	18-	8		0.225
2/16	at Vero Beach (20-2)	FL Dist 8	90.3	1	L	3-	15		0.000
2/19	at Oviedo (14-8)	FL Dist 3	75.7	9	L	6-	14		-0.225
2/21	LAKE HOWELL (7-6)	FL Dist 3	69.0		W	21-	11		0.000
3/01	vs. Wellington, FL # (10-7)	FL Dist 10	72.8		W	11-	10		0.175
3/01	vs. St. Andrew's, FL # (12-3)	FL Dist 11	73.0		W	14-	5		0.150
3/06	at Lyman (5-10)	FL Dist 4	65.5		W	15-	3		0.000
3/08	at Lake Highland Prep (11-6)	FL Dist 6	73.8		W	9-	8		0.250
3/08	vs. Greenwich Academy # (21-3)	NE	86.8		L	11-	12		-0.025
3/13	SEMINOLE (1-11)	FL Dist 3	56.4		W	19-	2		0.000
3/18	at Hagerty (1-13)	FL Dist 3	61.6		W	13-	1		0.000
3/25	LAKE MARY (8-8)	FL Dist 4	71.6		W	10-	7		0.125
3/26	REGIS JESUIT (8-8)	CO Contin	77.7		W	19-	7		0.200
3/27	BISHOP MOORE (4-11)	FL Dist 5	65.4		W	21-	4		0.000
4/01	vs. Lake Howell # (7-6)	FL Dist 3	69.0		W	18-	4		0.025
4/03	OVIEDO (14-8)	FL Dist 3	75.7	9	L	11-	12		-0.325
# Neutral site			73.5						0.65

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/06	A	Winter Park	13-	10	3	1		1.78	1.84
2/08	H	St. Edward's	17-	8	9	12	–	-1.78	-3.16
2/12	A	Lake Brantley	17-	19	-2	-4	+	1.78	2.09
2/16	N	Pine Crest	18-	8	10	1	+++	0.00	8.56
2/16	A	Vero Beach	3-	15	-12	-13		1.78	1.48
2/19	A	Oviedo	6-	14	-8	-1	–––	1.78	-7.38
2/21	H	Lake Howell	21-	11	10	11		-1.78	-0.70
3/01	N	Wellington, FL	11-	10	1	3		0.00	-1.89
3/01	N	St. Andrew's, FL	14-	5	9	4	++	0.00	4.69
3/06	A	Lyman	15-	3	12	12		1.78	0.04
3/08	A	Lake Highland Prep	9-	8	1	0		1.78	1.37
3/08	N	Greenwich Academy	11-	12	-1	-9	+++	0.00		7.59
3/13	H	Seminole	19-	2	17	22	––	-1.78	-5.37
3/18	A	Hagerty	13-	1	12	15	–	1.78	-3.02
3/25	H	Lake Mary	10-	7	3	5		-1.78	-1.71
3/26	H	Regis Jesuit	19-	7	12	2	+++	-1.30		10.22
3/27	H	Bishop Moore	21-	4	17	15		-1.78	2.00
4/01	N	Lake Howell	18-	4	14	9	++	0.00	5.08
4/03	H	Oviedo	11-	12	-1	3	–	-1.78	-3.94
									0.00	17.81

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/16	N	Pine Crest	18-	8	0.00
2/16	A	Vero Beach	3-	15	-1.48
2/21	H	Lake Howell	21-	11	0.70
3/06	A	Lyman	15-	3	-0.04
3/13	H	Seminole	19-	2	5.37
3/18	A	Hagerty	13-	1	3.02
3/26	H	Regis Jesuit	19-	7	-2.00
3/27	H	Bishop Moore	21-	4	-2.00
4/01	N	Lake Howell	18-	4	-4.00
10-goal correction: -0.02

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	78.		Natl CCR Rank	401
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	78.18		Natl Power Rank	401
Natl SOS Rating	65.49		Natl SOS Rank	708
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.65		Natl Quality Win Rank	317
W-L Pct Rating	0.74		W-L Pct Rank	378
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	14-5		Ave Goal diff (all )	5.6
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-7.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-4		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-2.6
Wins/Losses (top 20)	6-4		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	0.4
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	10.0


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