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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (4-8)

Conference: RMLC 2

Region: West

State: AZ

Coach: Troy Elliott

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Rank	Score				QWF
2/15	vs. Utah Valley State # (6-5)	RMLC 2	71.8	16	L	6-	11		0.00
2/16	vs. Biola # (10-5)	WCLL 2	69.3	19	W	13-	6		-0.28
2/17	vs. St. John's (MN) # (12-4)	UMLL 2	72.4	4	L	7-	10		0.00
2/29	FORT LEWIS (12-5)	RMLC 2	75.5	7	L	8-	11		0.00
3/07	at Metropolitan State (7-3)	RMLC 2	67.4	20	L	7-	8		0.00
3/08	vs. Montana State # (7-3)	RMLC 2	71.7	14	L	10-	16		0.00
3/09	at Northern Colorado (7-5)	RMLC 2	72.1	13	L	5-	13		0.00
3/15	COLORADO SCH. OF MINES (7-5)	RMLC 2	67.0	22	W	10-	2		-0.16
4/05	at New Mexico (2-6)	RMLC 2	60.7		W	13-	2		0.00
4/13	WESTMINSTER (16-3)	RMLC 2	79.9	1	L	5-	16		0.00
4/25	at Western State (2-8)	RMLC 2	58.2		W	13-	12	ot	0.00
4/26	vs. Utah State # (4-8)	RMLC 2	65.0		L	9-	13		0.00
# Neutral site			69.6						-0.44

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/15	N	Utah Valley State	6-	11	-5	-3		0.00	-1.58
2/16	N	Biola	13-	6	7	-1	+++	0.00	7.94
2/17	N	St. John's (MN)	7-	10	-3	-4		0.00	1.07
2/29	H	Fort Lewis	8-	11	-3	-6	+	-1.50	2.66
3/07	A	Metropolitan State	7-	8	-1	-1		1.50	-0.47
3/08	N	Montana State	10-	16	-6	-3	–	0.00	-2.68
3/09	A	Northern Colorado	5-	13	-8	-5	–	1.50	-2.71
3/15	H	Colorado Sch. of Mines	10-	2	8	3	++	-1.50	5.18
4/05	A	New Mexico	13-	2	11	6	++	1.50	4.86
4/13	H	Westminster	5-	16	-11	-10		-1.50	-0.95
4/25	A	Western State	13-	12	1	9	–––	1.50	-7.64
4/26	N	Utah State	9-	13	-4	3	–––	0.00	-7.38
									-1.69	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/05	A	New Mexico	13-	2	-1.00
4/13	H	Westminster	5-	16	1.00
10-goal correction: 0.00

Local Rating
Local TSI Rating	60.00		Local TSI Rank	18
Local Poll Vote	n/a		Local Poll Rank	n/a
Local Power Rating	68.35		Local Power Rank	18
Local SOS Rating	69.64		Local SOS Rank	6
Local RPI Rating	0.53		Local RPI Rank	33
Local Trend Rating	2.00		Local Trend Rank	28
Local Quality Win Rating	-0.44		Local Quality Win Rank	24
Local Loss Rating	1.60		Local Loss Rank	93
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	4-8		Ave Goal diff (all )	-1.2
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-7.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-5.7
Wins/Losses (top 20)	1-7		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-3.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.7

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