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North Carolina Tar Heels (8-6)

Conference: ACC

Region: Southeast

State: NC

Coach: John Haus

#14 Navy Sinks #9 Tar Heels in Tournament Opener

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. - Unseeded Navy led for all but 4:21 of the match as the Midshipmen defeated fourth-seeded North Carolina 8-7 Saturday night in the first round of the 2008 NCAA Men's Lacrosse Championship at Fetzer Field before a crowd of 1,735. The Mids improve to 10-5 on the season and will host either Hofstra or defending NCAA champion Johns Hopkins next Saturday in the NCAA quarterfinals at Annapolis, Md. [full story]

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score*				QWF
2/16	BELLARMINE (7-7)	Great Western	87.1		W	15-	2		0.00
2/23	at Denver (10-7)	Great Western	92.2	17	W	6-	5		-0.20
3/02	CORNELL (11-4)	Ivy League	94.2	7	W	13-	8		-0.70
3/08	NOTRE DAME (14-2)	Great Western	96.4	5	W	8-	6		-0.80
3/11	at Providence (7-8)	Metro Atlanti	88.6		W	8-	6		0.00
3/15	at Duke (17-1)	ACC	99.9	1	L	9-	19		0.00
3/18	MARIST (3-13)	Metro Atlanti	84.5		W	12-	3		0.00
3/22	MARYLAND (10-5)	ACC	95.0	8	L	8-	13		0.00
3/29	at Johns Hopkins (9-5)	Independent	95.9	4	W	13-	8		-0.85
4/05	VIRGINIA (13-3)	ACC	94.8	2	L	11-	12	ot	0.00
4/12	vs. Ohio State # (11-5)	Great Western	96.0	11	L	11-	14		0.00
4/19	HOFSTRA (10-6)	Colonial	92.0	16	W	13-	9		-0.25
4/25	vs. Duke # (17-1)	ACC	99.9	1	L	6-	17		0.00
5/10	NAVY (10-5)	Patriot	93.5	14	L	7-	8		0.00
* Click the score for the game story. # Neutral site			94.0						-2.80

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/16	H	Bellarmine	15-	2	13	9	+	-1.70	3.97
2/23	A	Denver	6-	5	1	0		1.70	0.91
3/02	H	Cornell	13-	8	5	1	+	-1.70	3.90
3/08	H	Notre Dame	8-	6	2	-1	+	-1.70	3.01
3/11	A	Providence	8-	6	2	4		1.70	-1.55
3/15	A	Duke	9-	19	-10	-7	–	1.70	-2.60
3/18	H	Marist	12-	3	9	11		-1.70	-1.96
3/22	H	Maryland	8-	13	-5	1	––	-1.70	-5.50
3/29	A	Johns Hopkins	13-	8	5	-4	+++	1.70	8.51
4/05	H	Virginia	11-	12	-1	0		-1.70	-0.82
4/12	N	Ohio State	11-	14	-3	-2		0.00	-0.60
4/19	H	Hofstra	13-	9	4	3		-1.70	0.86
4/25	N	Duke	6-	17	-11	-6	––	0.00	-5.30
5/10	H	Navy	7-	8	-1	2	–	-1.70	-2.82
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/16	H	Bellarmine	15-	2	-3.00
3/15	A	Duke	9-	19	0.00
4/25	N	Duke	6-	17	1.00
10-goal correction: -0.14

Local Rating
Local TSI Rating	8.00	Local TSI Rank	5
Local Poll Vote	116.	Local Poll Rank	9
Local Power Rating	93.74	Local Power Rank	12
Local SOS Rating	93.98	Local SOS Rank	1
Local RPI Rating	0.62	Local RPI Rank	5
Local Trend Rating	4.00	Local Trend Rank	51
Local Quality Win Rating	-2.80	Local Quality Win Rank	3
Local Loss Rating	1.20	Local Loss Rank	22
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	8-6	Ave Goal diff (all )	0.7
Wins/Losses (top 5)	2-3	Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-3.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	3-4	Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-2.1
Wins/Losses (top 20)	5-6	Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-1.3
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2	Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-2.7


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