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Oregon Ducks (13-7)

Conference: MPSF

Region: West/Midwest

State: OR

Coach: Jen Larsen

Cal Edged by Oregon in MPSF Third-Place Game

BERKELEY, Calif. - California held an 8-7 lead over Oregon in the 46th minute of their MPSF Championship third-place game on an overcast Friday afternoon at Memorial Stadium, but the fourth-seeded Ducks scored the game's last two goals to claim victory over the second-seeded host. The Golden Bears, who are not expected to receive an at-large bid to the 16-team NCAA Tournament, likely ended their season with a 9-9 record. Oregon, which is also not a strong contender to receive an at-large NCAA Tournament berth, likely ended its year with a 13-7 record. [full story]

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score*				QWF
2/08	at Stanford (12-8)	MPSF	90.8	18	L	7-	8		0.00
2/10	at UC Davis (7-11)	MPSF	80.3		W	15-	5		0.00
2/22	at Virginia Tech (4-14)	Atlantic Coas	87.5		W	14-	13		0.00
2/24	at Richmond (9-9)	Atlantic 10	88.3		W	17-	5		0.00
3/01	LE MOYNE (12-5)	Independent	85.2		W	15-	7		0.00
3/06	vs. Notre Dame # (12-7)	Big East	93.8	10	W	14-	13		-0.55
3/08	vs. Temple # (13-7)	Atlantic 10	88.2		W	10-	9		0.00
3/11	NORTH CAROLINA (13-6)	Atlantic Coas	94.9	11	L	9-	14		0.00
3/16	COLUMBIA (5-10)	Ivy League	84.6		W	17-	10		0.00
3/22	vs. Johns Hopkins # (8-9)	Amer. Lac. Co	92.9	20	L	9-	10		0.00
3/26	at St. Bonaventure (4-10)	Atlantic 10	84.9		W	11-	10	ot	0.00
3/30	at Colgate (11-10)	Patriot Leagu	85.7		W	11-	9		0.00
4/05	DENVER (13-6)	MPSF	91.3	19	L	12-	13		0.00
4/12	CALIFORNIA (9-9)	MPSF	88.0		L	8-	12		0.00
4/13	ST. MARY'S (CA) (2-16)	MPSF	74.8		W	20-	3		0.00
4/18	at Vermont (8-9)	America East	87.7		W	12-	11	ot	0.00
4/20	at New Hampshire (13-6)	America East	92.3	13	L	12-	13	2ot	0.00
4/30	vs. UC Davis # (7-11)	MPSF	80.3		W	14-	9		0.00
5/01	vs. Denver # (13-6)	MPSF	91.3	19	L	12-	18		0.00
5/02	at California (9-9)	MPSF	88.0		W	9-	8		0.00
* Click the score for the game story. # Neutral site			86.1						-0.55

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/08	A	Stanford	7-	8	-1	-2		1.36	1.03
2/10	A	UC Davis	15-	5	10	8		1.36	1.61
2/22	A	Virginia Tech	14-	13	1	2		1.36	-0.55
2/24	A	Richmond	17-	5	12	0	+++	1.36	11.64
3/01	H	Le Moyne	15-	7	8	6		-1.36	1.64
3/06	N	Notre Dame	14-	13	1	-4	++	0.00	4.64
3/08	N	Temple	10-	9	1	2		0.00	-0.85
3/11	H	North Carolina	9-	14	-5	-3		-1.36	-1.51
3/16	H	Columbia	17-	10	7	7		-1.36	-0.20
3/22	N	Johns Hopkins	9-	10	-1	-3		0.00	1.77
3/26	A	St. Bonaventure	11-	10	1	4	–	1.36	-2.81
3/30	A	Colgate	11-	9	2	3		1.36	-1.31
4/05	H	Denver	12-	13	-1	0		-1.36	-1.24
4/12	H	California	8-	12	-4	3	–––	-1.36	-7.33
4/13	H	St. Mary's (CA)	20-	3	17	17		-1.36	0.22
4/18	A	Vermont	12-	11	1	1		1.36	-0.30
4/20	A	New Hampshire	12-	13	-1	-4	+	1.36	2.78
4/30	N	UC Davis	14-	9	5	10	––	0.00	-4.76
5/01	N	Denver	12-	18	-6	-1	––	0.00	-4.88
5/02	A	California	9-	8	1	1		1.36	0.39
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/10	A	UC Davis	15-	5	0.00
2/24	A	Richmond	17-	5	-2.00
4/13	H	St. Mary's (CA)	20-	3	-0.22
10-goal correction: -0.11

Local Rating
Local TSI Rating	91.00	Local TSI Rank	29
Local Poll Vote	n/a	Local Poll Rank	n/a
Local Power Rating	89.93	Local Power Rank	24
Local SOS Rating	86.08	Local SOS Rank	41
Local RPI Rating	0.55	Local RPI Rank	24
Local Trend Rating	2.00	Local Trend Rank	32
Local Quality Win Rating	-0.55	Local Quality Win Rank	21
Local Loss Rating	1.40	Local Loss Rank	33
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	13-7	Ave Goal diff (all )	2.4
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0	Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-0	Ave Goal diff (top 10)	1.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	1-6	Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-2.0
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1	Ave Goal diff (last 3)	0.0


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