Introduction The past five years, LaxPower has employed a computer rating system for college and high school lacrosse. Computer results were based strictly on game scores, strength of opponents (based on game scores) and home-field advantage. While this formula focuses on trends to predict the goal margin of victory for any two arbitrary teams, the system does not take into account other factors considered important in the ranking of all teams. In order to include these additional factors, LaxPower will employ a formula similar to the College Football "Bowl Championship Series" or "BCS" rating system for the national high school (boys and girls) and college (mens and womens) lacrosse. An explanation of the BCS formula and the modified formulas for high school and college lacrosse are described below. The modified BCS formulas will be known as the Coaches/Computer Rating (CCR) System. Bowl Championship Series The BCS is a rating system used to assign College Football Division I-A teams to the Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and Rose Bowls and more importantly, select the two highest rated teams to play in a bowl to produce a "National Champion." There are five factors or components in the current BCS formula which will determine the top two contenders: (1) polls (2) computer ratings (3) strength of schedule (4) quality wins factor (5) loss factor. The system produces a number for each team based on the five components above as follows: the average poll ranking (based on two polls), the average computer ranking (based on eight computer systems), the strength of schedule ranking, the total number of losses and finally the total number of "quality wins". The total BCS rating is based on adding the first four components and subtracting the fifth component. The lower this total number for a team, the higher BCS rating. As an example, for the week ending November 16, the BCS standings for college football Div I-A were as follows: Team BCS Poll Computer SOS Losses Quality Rating Ave Ave Wins 1 Nebraska 2.87 2.0 1.17 1.00 0 1.3 2 Miami 5.25 1.0 2.33 1.92 0 - 3 Oklahoma 8.13 4.0 3.33 0.80 1 1.0 4 Florida 9.95 3.0 4.83 1.12 1 - 5 Oregon 13.22 6.5 5.00 0.92 1 0.2 6 Texas 14.39 5.0 6.33 2.16 1 0.1 7 Tennessee 14.95 6.5 7.17 0.28 1 - 8 Illinois 19.76 10.0 8.00 0.76 1 - 9 Stanford 22.81 13.0 8.67 0.24 2 1.1 10 Michigan 23.07 11.0 10.67 0.20 2 0.8 11 Washington 25.65 12.0 11.83 1.32 2 1.5 12 Maryland 25.99 8.5 13.33 3.16 1 - 13 BYU 26.49 8.5 13.83 4.16 0 - 14 Washington St 29.74 15.5 11.00 1.84 2 0.6 15 Colorado 30.87 14.0 13.83 1.04 2 - The poll average is based on the results of USA Today/ESPN Coaches and AP Media Polls. The computer average is based on the results of six of eight computer ratings (highest and lowest eliminated for each team) includ- ing the Sagarin Ratings, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution, etc. The strength of schedule is based on the rankings of each team divided by 25 where the the cumulative won/loss records of each teams opponents and the cumulative won/loss records of each opponent's opponents are combined (0.67 * opponents + 0.33 * opponent's opponents). Loss factor is simply giving a team one point for each loss. The Quality Wins Factor rewards a team 1.5 points for defeating the top ranked BCS team reduced to 0.1 points for defeating the 15th ranked BCS team. No points are awarded for defeating teams not ranked in the BCS top 15. Nebraska is first with the lowest BCS score of 2.87. The score is based on a poll average of 2.0 plus a computer rating average of 1.17 plus a strength of schedule score of 1.00 (ranked 25th divided by 25), no losses and 1.3 quality win points for beating Oklahoma. The modified BCS formulas for college and high school lacrosse and an explanation of each follows. College Formula The BCS formula remains virtually in tact for college lacrosse. This forumla will be applied independently to: Men's Division I Men's Division II Women's Division I Women's Division II Women's Division III Men's USLIA Men's JUCO A discussion of the Polls, Computer Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins Factor and Loss Factor as they apply only to college are discussed below. As an example, for Men's Division I, at the end of the regular season and prior to the NCAA tournament, Princeton topped the list with the lowest score of 1.7. They received 1 point for ranking number one in the polls, one point for ranking number one in the power ratings, 0.64 points for ranking 16th in strength of schedule (16/25 = 0.64), one point for one loss (against Syracuse) and this total was reduced by earning 1.90 quality win points for beating Johns Hopkins (1.20), Virginia (0.40), Hofstra (0.10) and Cornell (0.20). The SOS was based on the W-L percentage of their opponent's and the W-L record of their opponent's opponents. The Quality Win Factor was based on the ranking of the Polls (STX/USLIA) as opposed to the ranking of the BCS ratings. No Team CCR = Poll + PR + SOS + QWF + Loss 1 Princeton 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 -1.9 1.0 2 Syracuse 2.4 2.0 2.0 0.4 -4.0 2.0 3 Notre Dame 7.5 3.0 4.0 0.8 -1.3 1.0 4 Johns Hopkins 9.7 4.0 6.0 0.0 -3.3 3.0 5 Georgetown 10.3 5.0 5.0 0.3 -2.0 2.0 6 Maryland 11.7 6.0 7.0 0.4 -3.7 2.0 7 Massachusetts 13.6 8.0 3.0 1.0 -0.4 2.0 8 Loyola 20.0 7.0 12.0 0.2 -2.2 3.0 9 Towson 22.5 10.0 10.0 0.6 -1.1 3.0 10 Virginia 23.3 12.0 8.0 0.1 -2.8 6.0 11 Navy 26.4 13.0 9.0 0.5 -1.1 5.0 12 Bucknell 29.9 11.0 15.0 0.9 0.0 3.0 13 Hofstra 30.2 15.0 11.0 0.2 -2.0 6.0 14 Cornell 34.0 14.0 13.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 15 Penn State 37.3 17.0 14.0 0.5 -0.2 6.0 16 UMBC 39.6 16.0 17.0 0.1 -0.5 7.0 17 Army 42.3 19.0 16.0 1.3 0.0 6.0 18 Duke 43.0 9.0 30.0 0.4 -1.4 5.0 19 Pennsylvania 45.2 20.0 18.0 0.7 -0.5 7.0 20 North Carolina 61.5 18.0 38.0 0.2 -0.7 6.0 ........................ 30 Harvard - - 28.0 1.2 -0.7 7.0 ........................ 40 Hartford - - 40.0 1.6 0.0 8.0 ........................ Teams that did not receive a ranking in the Polls are notgiven a numerical BCS rating but are listed in order of the summation of the remaining comp- onents. What Games Count? For college, all games during the regular season counted as well as the ECAC tournament. NCAA and USLIA championship tournament games do not count. Polls The polls used for college are as follows: Men's Division I: STX/USLIA Men's Division II: STX/USLIA Men's Division III: STX/USLIA Women's Division I: IWCLA Women's Division II: IWCLA Women's Division III: IWCLA Men's USLIA: USLIA Top 25 Men's JUCO: NJCAA Men's Lacrosse Poll See Polls for more details. Computer Ratings The computer ratings will consider only this year's scores and not past year's performance. This means that at the beginning of the season, all teams are equal. After the fifth week of the season, computer ratings are added the the CCR formula. The power ratings are calculated so that if you subtract the power ratings of the two opposing teams and add the home field advantage, the result should equal the goal margin or difference in scores between the two teams. The total error of satisfying this equation goes to zero when the errors for all games played by a team are added. Inter- divisional games are not counted. Running-up-the-score will only slightly improve a power rating and will have a minor effect in the CCR as the computer ratings represent only one of five components. See analysis for more details. Strength of Schedule Strength of Schedule for college is based on the BCS formula = won/loss percentage of an opponent and the won/loss percentage of the opponent's opponents. The average is based on 2/3 of the opponents won/loss percentage and 1/3 of the opponent's opponent won/loss percentage. The average of the opponent's power ratings (used last year) is shown for comparison but is no longer used in the college formula. The SOS ranking is divided by 25 to determine the "quartile" for the CCR forumla. See SOS for more details. Quality Win Factor The Quality Win Factor is based on the number of wins against quality opponent's. A quality opponent is defined as a team which is ranked in the top 15 of BCS. The CCR will use the Coaches Poll (top 20) for Men and Women Divisions I and III, USLIA divisions based on the polls listed above. For Men and Women division II and JUCO, the CCR will use the top 10 teams. A victory against the number 1 ranked team in the polls is worth 1.0 points and a victory against the 20th ranked team is worth 0.05 points. For div- ision II and Juco, a victory against the top team will be worth 1.0 point and a victory against the tenth team is worth 0.1 point. See QWF for more details. Loss Factor The Loss Factor is simply the sum of all losses by a team. See Loss Factor for more details. Summary In summary the CCR for college lacrosse is virtually the same as the BCS for college football with the major difference in the definition of the quality teams. Laxpower is only one computer rating for college lacrosse as compared with the average of eight computer ratings for college football. High School Formula The modified BCS formula for high school is similar to the college coaches/ computer rating with some basic differences. The high school formula is applied nationally and not to individual divisions or regions. All the regions are tied together through regional offset margins which is discussed under Computer Ratings. The Polls include 25 teams and not 15 or 10 as is the case with college divisions. The strength of schedule is based on a weighted average of each team's opponent's power ratings and not the won-lost records of opponent's (and their opponent's) as is employed by the BCS. A discussion of the Polls, Computer Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins Factor and Loss Factor as they apply only to high school are discussed below. As an example of the formula, the table below illustrates the results of the CCR had they applied to the 2001 boys high school lacrosse season. Landon received the lowest total (-0.4) based on a poll ranking of 1 (Inside lacrosse / Warrior Boys High School Poll), a computer ranking of 1, a strength of schedule of 0.4 based on a ranking of 9th (divided by 25), one point for one loss and (-3.8) bonus points for quality wins over Loyola (0.88), Gilman (0.84), Haverford (0.08), Georgetown Prep (0.68 * 2.0) and DeMatha (0.64). No Team CCR = Poll + PR + SOS + QWF + Loss 1 Landon -0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 -3.8 1.0 2 Loyola 8.9 4.0 3.0 0.2 -2.3 4.0 3 Garden City 13.3 6.0 2.0 5.8 -1.4 1.0 4 Yorktown 16.9 8.0 6.0 1.8 -0.8 2.0 5 Taft 17.1 12.0 4.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 6 McDonogh 19.1 7.0 9.0 0.3 -2.2 5.0 7 Gilman 24.2 5.0 18.0 0.0 -2.8 4.0 8 West Genesee 27.2 15.0 8.0 0.7 -0.5 4.0 9 Georgetown Prep 27.8 9.0 17.0 0.5 -1.7 3.0 10 Brother Rice 33.3 14.0 7.0 11.3 0.0 1.0 11 DeMatha 33.4 10.0 19.0 1.0 -0.7 4.0 12 Boys' Latin 34.6 11.0 20.0 0.2 -1.6 5.0 13 Northport 38.5 2.0 26.0 9.2 -0.7 2.0 14 Ward Melville 42.0 16.0 10.0 13.4 -0.3 3.0 15 Moorestown 48.0 19.0 23.0 3.2 -0.1 3.0 16 St Anthony's 48.4 21.0 21.0 4.4 0.0 2.0 17 Wantagh 55.6 3.0 49.0 4.1 -1.5 1.0 18 Sachem 58.5 18.0 24.0 13.9 -1.4 4.0 19 Haverford School 61.0 24.0 31.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 20 Fayettev'le-Manlius 66.6 25.0 38.0 1.0 -0.4 3.0 21 Auburn 66.6 17.0 44.0 1.7 -0.1 4.0 22 Mountain Lakes 87.0 23.0 58.0 2.3 -0.3 4.0 23 New Canaan 101.7 20.0 72.0 5.7 0.0 4.0 24 Ridley 116.9 22.0 87.0 4.9 0.0 3.0 25 Pinkerton - - 5.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 26 Upper Arlington - - 11.0 3.4 -0.5 2.0 27 Loomis Chaffee - - 13.0 0.6 0.0 4.0 28 Avon Old Farms - - 15.0 0.8 0.0 3.0 29 Liverpool - - 16.0 0.9 -0.8 5.0 30 Penn Yan - - 12.0 10.8 -0.5 1.0 The system does not currently consider "running-up-the-score" and weighting according to when the game was played but both will be considered by a coaches committee. What Games Count? For high school, all games appearing on a teams schedule will count as official games and used in the ratings. All scrimmages or tournament games occuring during the season will not count unless both coaches agree prior to playing the game that the game(s) will count. (Contact: baldo@schore.com). All post-season championship tournament games will be treated as official games and will count. Polls The high school poll is based on a poll conducted by Laxpower and voted on by high school boys coaches. We currently do not have a girl's high school lacrosse poll but hope to implement one at the earliest date. Girl's high school coaches, please contact Larry at (laf@laxpower.com) to be included on future committees. See Polls for more details on the polls. Computer Ratings The computer ratings will consider only this year's scores and not past year's performance. This means that at the beginning of the season, all teams are equal. After the fifth week of the season, computer ratings are added the the CCR formula. The power ratings are calculated so that if you subtract the power ratings of the two opposing teams and add the home field advantage, the result should equal the goal margin or difference in scores between the two teams. For high school, the power rating is based on two components: a local component considering games against "local" teams and an external component, based on games played against all other teams in other regions. The sum of the two yields the overall power rating. See analysis for more details. Strength of Schedule For high school, the strength of schedule is based on a weighted average of all opponents power ratings and not the won-loss record of opponents. The SOS ranking is divided by 300 to normalize it. " See SOS for more details. Quality Win Factor The Quality Win Factor is based on the number of wins against quality opponent's. A quality opponent is defined as a team which is ranked in the top 25 based on the polls. A victory against the number one rated team is worth 1.00 points whereas a victory against the 25th rated team is worth 0.04 points. See QWF for more details. Loss Factor The Loss Factor is simply the sum of all losses by a team. See Loss Factor for more details. Summary In summary for high school lacrosse, the method will be increasingly influenced by the coaches and the actual formula will be voted on by a special coaches committee. High school coaches, please contact George @ (baldo@cshore.com) to become a member of these committees. Conclusion In summary, the purpose of this new procedure is to correct problems of past years and to constantly evolve the system to produce the fairest results. Please send opinions and suggestions to (laf@laxpower.com).