| Conference: Amer. Lac. Conf | Region: West/Midwest | State: OH | Coach: Sue Stimmel |
#15 Penn St. Advances to ALC Title Game over #14 Ohio St.
UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. – On the strength of an offensive outpouring from senior Marisa Lozano (Pittsburgh, Pa.) and a stellar effort in goal from junior Stephanie Ellis (Bryn Mawr, Pa.), the Penn State women's lacrosse team (9-7) ousted Ohio State (11-6) from the 2009 ALC Championship with a decisive 11-7 semifinal victory at Jeffrey Field on Friday evening. [full story]
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| Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games. |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Goal Differential | +/ | Home Adv. | Err-L | Err-E |
| Actual | Predicted |
2/13 | A | American | 17- | 7 | 10 | 10 | | 1.41 | -0.41 | |
2/15 | A | George Washington | 14- | 9 | 5 | 8 | | 1.41 | -2.94 | |
2/22 | A | Notre Dame | 11- | 14 | -3 | -4 | | 1.41 | 1.03 | |
3/01 | H | St. Bonaventure | 16- | 9 | 7 | 11 | | -1.41 | -4.14 | |
3/07 | H | Johns Hopkins | 22- | 12 | 10 | 6 | + | -1.41 | 3.74 | |
3/11 | H | Cincinnati | 20- | 8 | 12 | 12 | | -1.41 | -0.08 | |
3/14 | A | Louisville | 15- | 12 | 3 | 3 | | 1.41 | -0.39 | |
3/22 | A | Duquesne | 20- | 11 | 9 | 7 | + | 1.41 | 2.46 | |
3/24 | H | California | 18- | 5 | 13 | 9 | ++ | -1.41 | 4.16 | |
3/29 | H | Canisius | 15- | 9 | 6 | 12 | | -1.41 | -5.50 | |
4/03 | H | North Carolina | 8- | 10 | -2 | -1 | | -1.41 | -1.18 | |
4/05 | H | Maryland | 16- | 17 | -1 | -4 | + | -1.41 | 3.25 | |
4/12 | H | Vanderbilt | 15- | 13 | 2 | 0 | + | -1.41 | 2.13 | |
4/14 | A | Detroit | 21- | 4 | 17 | 17 | | 1.41 | 0.08 | |
4/19 | A | Penn State | 9- | 13 | -4 | -1 | | 1.41 | -2.90 | |
4/22 | A | Northwestern | 10- | 18 | -8 | -12 | + | 1.41 | 3.59 | |
5/01 | A | Penn State | 7- | 11 | -4 | -1 | | 1.41 | -2.90 | |
| | | | | | | | | | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ten Goal Limit Correction |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Adj. |
2/13 | A | American | 17- | 7 | 0.41 |
3/07 | H | Johns Hopkins | 22- | 12 | 0.00 |
3/11 | H | Cincinnati | 20- | 8 | 0.08 |
3/24 | H | California | 18- | 5 | -3.00 |
4/14 | A | Detroit | 21- | 4 | -0.08 |
| 10-goal correction: -0.15 |
| Local Rating |
| Local TSI Rating | 57.00 | | Local TSI Rank | 18 |
| Local Poll Vote | 93. | | Local Poll Rank | 16 |
| Local Power Rating | 90.49 | | Local Power Rank | 15 |
| Local SOS Rating | 85.40 | | Local SOS Rank | 24 |
| Local RPI Rating | 0.57 | | Local RPI Rank | 20 |
| Local Trend Rating | 3.00 | | Local Trend Rank | 52 |
| Local Quality Win Rating | -0.50 | | Local Quality Win Rank | 18 |
| Local Loss Rating | 1.20 | | Local Loss Rank | 13 |
| Local Performance |
| Wins/Losses (all ) | 11-6 | | Ave Goal diff (all ) | 4.2 |
| Wins/Losses (top 5) | 0-3 | | Ave Goal diff (top 5) | -3.7 |
| Wins/Losses (top 10) | 0-4 | | Ave Goal diff (top 10) | -3.5 |
| Wins/Losses (top 20) | 1-6 | | Ave Goal diff (top 20) | -2.9 |
| Wins/Losses (last 3) | 0-3 | | Ave Goal diff (last 3) | -5.3 |
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