Tue Jun 22 19:27:15 EDT 2010

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 AL 2.77 52 7 17 9 9 4 6 CA N Coast 3.21 339 72 52 66 52 25 73 CA San Diego 2.74 347 78 72 61 56 30 50 AZ 3.38 59 15 8 5 11 4 16 CA N 2.95 174 49 30 27 20 13 35 CA N Club 2.54 72 14 21 10 14 3 10 2.96 26 4 6 6 4 4 2 FL W Club 2.01 29 9 8 7 2 1 2 CA S 3.15 328 71 59 53 48 33 65 CA S Club 1.87 46 18 12 6 5 3 2 CO 3.17 321 70 58 49 46 34 64 CT 2.97 633 132 124 122 87 54 115 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DE 2.85 202 44 42 46 26 16 28 FL FHSAA 3.45 512 95 104 73 67 54 119 FL SE Club 2.77 34 8 14 3 1 1 7 GA 3.55 350 57 61 55 44 43 90 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.25 56 10 14 4 9 4 15 IL 3.00 352 67 75 61 46 41 63 IN 3.23 120 20 27 19 16 13 25 IA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 KE 3.45 77 18 11 9 10 9 20 ME 2.72 234 54 50 45 28 16 41 DC 3.40 269 49 53 45 34 26 64 IAAM-A 3.21 156 30 29 26 22 17 32 IAAM-B 3.44 66 6 15 13 8 13 11 IAAM-C 3.41 52 9 15 8 2 5 13 MD Private 3.43 91 19 15 17 12 5 23 MD Public 3.32 770 152 167 131 86 67 168 MA 3.09 1427 303 273 237 201 162 254 MI DI 3.31 452 86 88 70 60 46 103 MI DII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI Club 4.77 68 5 19 11 3 5 26 MN 2.89 379 75 78 78 56 32 60 MN Club 2.91 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MO 2.59 215 59 46 32 27 20 32 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NE Prep 3.05 550 116 113 83 78 51 109 RI 3.01 215 42 45 39 31 25 34 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NH 2.68 251 66 51 38 37 24 35 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ 3.17 1605 339 314 267 192 167 330 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NY Sect 7 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NY City 2.89 121 30 31 14 10 16 20 NY Catholic 3.55 91 20 14 18 16 5 18 NY Sect 1 2.87 394 83 90 58 60 47 58 NY Sect 2 2.83 191 50 42 23 24 19 33 NY Sect 3 2.62 346 84 74 60 49 37 42 NY Sect 4 2.35 105 30 22 22 16 8 7 NY Sect 5 2.69 303 74 60 56 44 31 38 NY Sect 6 3.15 220 48 45 44 26 23 35 NY Sect 8 2.96 393 83 65 72 69 44 60 NY Sect 9 2.72 110 22 22 23 19 14 10 NY Sect 10 2.26 62 18 15 13 1 9 6 NY Sect 11 2.83 357 85 65 72 42 37 56 NC 2.86 245 56 44 44 39 26 37 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OH 2.93 686 149 142 129 88 57 121 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OR 2.94 262 58 56 38 38 29 43 PA PSLA 3.19 889 183 161 136 132 108 169 PA CPLA 3.50 338 55 67 50 43 43 80 PA WPIAL 2.66 236 66 45 38 33 20 34 SC 2.91 44 8 10 4 12 5 5 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TN 3.41 188 32 29 27 36 21 43 TX 3.34 290 64 43 39 45 38 61 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 UT 2.84 181 38 43 36 21 14 30 VT 3.34 156 25 33 23 23 21 31 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA 2.99 607 122 136 104 72 72 102 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA B 3.46 77 14 9 14 15 8 17 WA A 3.18 74 15 17 8 9 5 20 WV 3.22 33 7 6 4 5 5 6 WI 2.76 51 13 11 8 7 3 9 2.33 35 14 3 3 8 5 2 GA N Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.02 17153 3689 3440 2893 2340 1740 3073 total games............... = 17153 ave error (goals)......... = 3.02 total upsets.............. = 1438 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.51 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.56 % of games within 3 goals. = 58.43 % of games within 4 goals. = 72.07 % of games within 5 goals. = 82.21 % of games > 5 goals. = 17.92
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