Sun Jul 18 11:24:46 EDT 2010

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 MD1 2.88 447 111 89 69 62 38 78 MD2 3.02 278 54 61 40 47 31 45 MD3 3.08 1294 274 262 207 168 142 242 JUCO 4.19 235 41 40 34 28 18 74 MCLA A 3.86 760 126 144 118 106 71 195 MCLA B 4.28 667 114 121 91 72 60 209 NCLL 2.79 393 114 73 52 60 33 61 GLLL 2.73 137 32 34 28 14 11 18 Other 5.64 295 54 33 27 45 26 116 ALL 3.21 323 66 59 64 45 24 65 CUFLA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MUFLL 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.29 4474 952 879 696 612 422 920 total games............... = 4474 ave error (goals)......... = 3.29 total upsets.............. = 578 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.28 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.93 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.48 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.16 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.59 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.56
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