Wed Aug 18 18:41:57 EDT 2010

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 WD1 2.87 786 178 155 139 120 72 123 WD2 3.87 402 76 58 69 53 40 106 WD3 3.39 1507 278 267 264 194 176 329 WJUCO 4.00 92 19 12 11 10 11 29 WDIA 2.82 517 126 117 67 73 47 87 TOTAL 3.17 3262 676 609 550 447 344 638 total games............... = 3262 ave error (goals)......... = 3.17 total upsets.............. = 365 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.72 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.39 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.25 % of games within 4 goals. = 69.96 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.50 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.56
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