Sun Aug 21 10:27:13 EDT 2011

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.63 89 11 12 19 10 13 24 Arkansas 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Arizona 1 3.04 124 29 29 12 19 12 23 Arizona 2 3.28 64 10 10 14 9 7 14 CA North Coast CIF 3.09 421 91 86 83 52 30 79 CA Non-CIF Club 3.04 246 51 49 46 37 19 44 CA Central Coast C 3.36 270 50 49 40 46 19 66 CA Southern Sectio 2.96 547 114 130 85 69 52 97 CA San Diego CIF 2.70 411 95 93 68 65 36 54 Colorado CHSAA 3.12 501 112 82 92 63 53 99 Connecticut CIAC 2.91 707 178 112 131 83 90 113 Montana 1.85 26 9 8 4 2 2 1 Delaware 3.20 329 72 64 48 41 35 69 Florida Central/No 3.27 482 93 78 92 61 51 107 Florida South FHSA 3.87 252 48 39 30 27 34 74 Florida Club 3.45 476 101 91 66 62 41 115 Georgia AAAAA 3.26 338 72 60 51 51 33 71 Georgia AAAA/AAA/A 3.59 368 68 60 65 46 36 93 New York/Section 6 2.75 47 12 11 4 9 6 5 Idaho 3.18 150 38 26 21 16 14 35 Illinois A 3.42 332 60 64 51 47 31 79 Illinois B 3.47 303 66 69 41 26 30 71 Indiana 3.61 267 49 47 42 33 27 69 Kansas 3.41 54 8 7 13 8 4 14 Kentucky 2.96 179 40 38 29 24 22 26 Louisiana 3.43 86 15 17 14 10 9 21 Maine MPA 2.94 290 56 56 56 48 24 50 Maryland MIAA- A/D 3.97 218 41 31 33 28 22 63 Maryland MIAA-B 2.97 78 15 15 12 11 14 11 Maryland MIAA-C 4.25 67 13 8 8 14 3 21 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 4.31 298 36 51 44 34 30 103 Maryland MPSSAA 43 2.96 1070 222 224 189 145 110 180 Massachusetts MIAA 3.08 1397 304 276 232 195 130 260 Massachusetts MIAA 3.99 252 46 50 34 25 22 75 Massachusetts MIAA 3.42 135 25 27 18 21 11 33 Michigan MHSAA 3.72 855 161 164 142 110 76 202 Michigan Club 8.32 125 12 8 11 7 9 78 Illinois Indep Clu 3.08 84 20 23 11 13 6 11 Minnesota MSHSL 2.71 395 92 90 63 56 35 59 Minnesota MBSLA 3.18 149 35 20 30 26 12 26 Missouri MSLA 3.36 272 55 49 37 42 30 59 Nebraska 2.66 63 18 15 7 6 5 12 New England East/N 2.72 438 109 95 81 55 34 64 New England West I 3.63 136 27 29 25 10 9 36 New England West I 3.53 220 48 38 29 17 35 53 New Hampshire NHIA 3.18 379 76 85 49 56 34 79 New Jersey NJISAA/ 3.02 1639 335 347 287 213 154 303 Nevada 3.70 163 31 29 16 22 20 45 New Mexico 2.71 25 6 8 3 1 2 5 New York - NYC Met 3.11 214 50 40 32 35 15 42 New York - Catholi 3.12 186 39 39 30 23 16 39 New York - Section 2.94 484 114 98 93 56 40 83 New York - Section 2.90 236 64 35 40 24 29 44 New York - Section 3.32 368 77 66 60 49 37 79 New York - Section 2.75 136 38 29 20 13 14 22 New York - Section 3.35 334 56 52 68 50 34 74 New York - Section 3.36 297 66 67 36 37 23 68 New York - Section 3.07 432 89 83 71 64 45 80 New York - Section 3.57 169 31 25 28 30 18 37 New York - Section 3.74 85 18 14 13 5 8 27 New York - Section 2.99 393 95 78 62 54 32 72 North Carolina NCH 2.93 572 114 129 109 74 50 96 North Carolina NCI 3.14 175 32 28 36 28 20 31 North Carolina Clu 3.16 83 23 6 22 7 5 20 North Dakota 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio Divisions 1/2 3.44 889 178 147 137 125 88 214 OHSLA Local Playof 3.29 768 159 137 118 103 80 171 OHSLA Local Playof 3.89 226 37 32 27 36 28 66 Ohio OHSLA Club 3.93 234 39 35 31 33 25 71 Oklahoma 3.50 27 5 3 3 5 3 8 Oregon 3.09 437 98 96 69 57 38 79 PA East PIAA 3.12 799 163 147 139 111 79 160 PA IAC/Private 3.19 267 60 50 43 33 27 54 PA West WPIAL 3.08 313 61 62 55 48 29 58 PA Central PIAA 3.18 470 95 79 90 56 54 96 Rhode Island 3.33 175 31 32 25 33 15 39 South Carolina SCH 3.38 222 39 46 34 27 20 56 Tennessee 1 3.37 114 26 13 19 17 10 29 Tennessee 2 3.01 160 37 31 24 27 11 30 Texas 1 3.49 304 57 64 42 36 33 72 Texas 2 3.34 336 62 67 63 43 22 79 Utah ULA 3.01 293 55 60 53 47 22 56 Vermont I 2.68 124 31 24 31 14 9 15 Vermont II 3.10 145 26 26 33 19 13 28 VA VHSL Northern A 3.25 255 55 54 34 25 27 60 VA VHSL Northwest 3.67 180 32 26 32 23 20 47 VA VISAA Private I 3.86 200 36 33 41 20 11 59 VA VISAA Private I 3.41 190 38 36 35 19 13 49 VA VSHL AAA/AA Reg 3.30 258 50 43 50 32 24 59 VA Non VHSL Club 3.41 235 55 35 45 28 18 54 Washington I 3.54 206 46 30 30 33 16 51 Washington II 3.18 226 47 43 31 40 20 45 Wisconsin 3.05 236 55 46 32 31 26 46 VA VISAA Private I 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada East 2.34 438 108 118 91 53 35 33 West Virginia WVSL 4.11 83 16 11 11 13 10 22 Wyoming 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada West 3.98 33 9 9 3 2 1 9 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 2.48 26 9 2 8 2 1 4 TOTAL 3.09 26159 5634 5172 4395 3493 2530 4951 total games............... = 26159 ave error (goals)......... = 3.09 total upsets.............. = 3243 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.54 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.31 % of games within 3 goals. = 58.11 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.46 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.13 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.93
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