Mon Jun 20 13:02:26 EDT 2011

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.78 47 7 8 6 9 8 9 CA-North Coast Sec 3.03 342 82 65 57 43 31 64 CA-San Diego Secti 2.82 333 72 69 62 51 34 45 Arizona 2.81 94 24 20 17 10 10 13 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 3.40 168 32 23 33 24 21 35 CA-North Club 2.31 90 26 24 15 11 5 9 FL-Duval County 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 3.11 89 23 20 10 6 8 22 CA-South 2.77 382 97 78 64 46 44 53 CA-Central 4.18 33 5 5 6 3 3 11 Colorado 3.50 361 80 69 54 33 33 92 Connecticut 2.96 682 141 146 109 88 70 128 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.37 213 38 48 32 26 25 44 FL-FHSAA 3.19 628 128 121 112 64 73 130 FL-Southeast Club 3.20 97 16 22 19 14 8 18 Georgia 3.40 522 106 91 78 62 56 129 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 7.68 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 Illinois 3.47 387 74 67 76 50 33 87 Indiana 3.64 143 22 33 19 14 17 38 Iowa 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 3.45 102 22 16 10 17 13 24 Maine 3.12 253 48 47 47 35 22 54 DC Area 4.20 278 40 53 45 38 20 82 IAAM-A 3.82 132 22 22 17 24 10 37 IAAM-B 3.43 72 12 17 7 13 8 15 IAAM-C 4.05 78 10 15 5 12 12 24 MD-Private 4.72 109 19 13 12 16 11 38 MD-Public 3.45 841 172 157 138 111 75 188 Massachusetts 3.17 1464 327 266 234 200 145 292 MI-DI 3.18 548 110 99 93 84 64 98 MI-DII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 4.61 44 6 4 4 13 7 10 Minnesota 2.87 411 77 93 77 61 43 60 MN-Club 2.33 43 12 14 2 7 4 4 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 2.81 236 61 42 51 27 20 35 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New England Prep 3.02 566 121 124 91 75 64 91 Rhode Island 2.78 266 74 57 35 37 23 40 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 2.85 324 79 68 46 36 35 60 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 3.20 1585 333 305 251 217 152 327 NJ Prep 4.30 85 11 11 8 15 10 30 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 3.08 220 56 49 32 32 18 33 NYC-Catholic Schoo 3.77 95 20 18 14 11 8 24 NY-I 2.70 420 91 106 70 57 40 56 NY-II 2.88 202 43 42 25 34 28 30 NY-III 3.15 344 67 66 68 44 27 72 NY-IV 2.85 91 23 21 21 10 2 14 NY-V 2.96 303 58 63 60 34 34 54 NY-VI 2.85 229 48 58 36 33 17 37 NY-VIII 3.08 385 90 63 65 56 42 69 NY-IX 3.18 112 25 22 19 9 12 25 NY-X 3.18 63 15 13 6 7 5 17 NY-XI 3.06 371 78 68 69 45 38 73 North Carolina 3.21 397 88 75 73 37 44 80 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 2.89 757 183 149 139 94 67 125 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.34 298 58 56 48 46 26 64 PA-East 3.30 972 190 183 166 121 106 206 PA-Central 3.10 369 85 57 59 47 53 68 PA-West 2.99 280 68 64 35 34 27 52 South Carolina 3.72 155 30 23 27 13 15 47 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.55 209 46 41 27 21 25 49 Texas 3.56 281 44 54 47 29 36 71 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 3.18 183 37 30 35 29 13 39 Vermont 3.20 200 37 35 37 29 21 41 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.49 772 158 131 141 88 71 183 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-B 3.44 124 20 15 23 21 15 30 WA-A 3.58 74 15 9 12 18 2 18 West Virginia 3.59 40 6 5 11 2 7 9 Wisconsin 3.40 104 22 11 20 15 16 20 MD-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.05 17366 3765 3435 2945 2263 1769 3200 total games............... = 17366 ave error (goals)......... = 3.05 total upsets.............. = 1882 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.68 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.46 % of games within 3 goals. = 58.42 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.45 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.64 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.43
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