Thu Nov 10 21:16:50 EST 2011

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.78 457 97 107 85 50 46 72 NCAA Division II 3.18 317 78 62 52 31 30 64 NCAA Division III 3.26 1405 291 267 247 191 127 282 National Junior Co 4.59 226 44 29 35 29 19 70 MCLA Division 1 4.49 727 131 130 108 86 41 231 MCLA Division 2 5.35 778 131 99 104 85 70 289 National College L 6.80 448 103 85 65 58 32 105 Great Lakes Lacros 2.35 154 40 44 24 18 11 17 Teams of Interest 17.69 223 33 21 20 11 12 126 American Lacrosse 4.96 312 60 55 46 56 42 53 2010 Canadian Univ 3.14 65 9 12 16 10 5 13 2010 Maritime Univ 2.92 24 7 6 1 3 1 6 TOTAL 3.42 4586 979 872 756 592 404 987 total games............... = 4586 ave error (goals)......... = 3.42 total upsets.............. = 703 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.35 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.36 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.85 % of games within 4 goals. = 69.76 % of games within 5 goals. = 78.57 % of games > 5 goals. = 21.52
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