Sat Dec 3 19:03:33 EST 2011

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 3.03 789 162 160 134 103 87 143 Women's Division I 4.46 570 112 83 80 68 60 167 Women's Division I 3.50 1681 313 323 292 230 146 377 Women's Community/ 3.32 105 25 20 18 11 11 20 WCLA Division 1 5.49 606 96 102 81 83 57 187 WCLA Division 2 5.25 794 168 128 113 91 72 222 TOTAL 3.26 3824 783 743 646 513 379 766 total games............... = 3824 ave error (goals)......... = 3.26 total upsets.............. = 482 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.48 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.91 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.80 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.21 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.13 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.03
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