Thu Jun 21 14:10:40 EDT 2012

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.30 78 18 14 11 11 7 17 Arkansas 24.41 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 Arizona AHSLL 3.15 226 44 37 49 27 29 40 Alaska 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CA North Coast CIF 3.14 458 94 95 65 66 53 85 CA Non-CIF Club 3.30 241 66 35 33 29 31 47 CA Central Coast C 3.55 320 64 49 45 43 28 91 CA Southern Sectio 2.97 551 117 108 103 70 46 107 CA San Diego CIF 2.73 424 83 98 83 61 36 63 Colorado CHSAA 3.05 496 98 116 83 53 39 107 Connecticut CIAC 2.98 746 165 143 121 106 87 124 Montana 3.15 46 12 4 12 3 7 8 Delaware DIAA 2.88 336 92 55 48 53 34 54 Florida Central/No 3.19 618 133 124 89 81 57 134 Florida South FHSA 3.44 578 104 113 86 65 67 143 Florida Club WFLL 3.26 176 36 29 34 21 19 37 Georgia AAAAA 3.47 350 68 57 64 45 31 85 Georgia AAAA/AAA/A 3.52 398 78 66 63 54 32 105 New York/Section 6 4.16 44 9 3 4 6 8 14 Idaho 3.25 156 35 30 22 18 15 36 Illinois IHSLA A 3.31 367 69 65 67 55 40 71 Illinois IHSLA B 3.61 401 75 68 74 53 43 88 Indiana 5.42 310 43 42 54 37 22 112 Kansas 2.87 100 22 26 16 12 4 20 Kentucky 3.94 223 53 35 42 17 25 51 Louisiana LHSLL 3.05 92 17 29 12 14 6 14 Maine MPA 2.77 297 64 71 50 42 32 38 Maryland MIAA- A/D 4.57 229 40 33 25 20 19 92 Maryland MIAA-B 3.37 60 7 12 12 11 7 11 Maryland MIAA-C 2.98 101 19 24 21 12 6 19 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 3.55 307 57 52 45 33 48 72 Maryland MPSSAA 43 2.94 1118 257 229 196 143 96 197 Massachusetts MIAA 2.98 1451 334 299 228 195 131 264 Massachusetts MIAA 3.27 261 60 44 45 33 24 55 Massachusetts MIAA 3.23 205 44 43 23 28 20 47 Michigan MHSAA 3.37 948 180 187 147 126 91 217 Michigan Club 5.10 119 20 10 14 13 14 48 Illinois Indep Clu 3.63 110 20 21 25 13 12 19 Minnesota MSHSL 3.01 418 87 82 70 66 37 76 Minnesota MBSLA 3.07 188 47 32 36 23 23 27 Missouri MSLA 3.83 255 56 48 37 24 31 59 Nebraska 2.93 81 19 14 13 15 6 14 New England East/N 3.12 431 82 84 81 58 47 79 New England West I 3.97 134 21 21 21 15 18 38 New England West I 3.83 228 47 42 31 24 19 65 New Hampshire NHIA 2.81 385 92 63 83 55 33 59 New Jersey NJISAA/ 3.03 1724 382 331 295 228 164 324 Nevada 4.23 126 23 16 26 16 12 33 New Mexico 3.25 28 6 7 2 1 4 8 New York - NYC Met 3.65 210 47 33 33 28 18 51 New York - Catholi 3.59 192 34 34 37 21 16 50 New York - Section 2.85 474 118 94 68 66 48 80 New York - Section 3.24 251 49 58 32 37 18 57 New York - Section 2.99 370 75 86 67 45 30 67 New York - Section 3.25 158 30 30 25 18 24 31 New York - Section 2.75 354 94 64 59 54 34 49 New York - Section 3.68 316 66 36 55 40 33 86 New York - Section 2.73 445 109 93 78 56 45 64 New York - Section 3.09 184 42 29 33 23 19 38 New York - Section 3.77 73 14 10 11 12 5 21 New York - Section 2.99 407 93 79 71 43 42 79 North Carolina NCH 3.23 640 157 101 109 72 62 139 North Carolina NCI 3.19 197 45 37 26 27 16 46 North Carolina Clu 4.60 76 23 11 5 6 6 25 North Dakota 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio Divisions 1/2 3.38 929 183 174 158 113 89 212 OHSLA Local Playof 3.14 812 166 158 148 93 86 161 OHSLA Local Playof 3.81 224 42 34 33 29 26 60 Ohio OHSLA Club 3.92 231 44 34 34 31 25 63 Oklahoma 3.68 37 6 7 5 5 4 10 Oregon OHSLA 3.40 451 84 85 66 68 44 104 PA East PIAA 3.00 823 176 188 133 117 62 147 PA IAC/Private 3.82 290 58 48 45 28 30 81 PA West WPIAL 3.56 331 70 56 48 34 48 75 PA Central PIAA 3.02 489 96 105 80 80 46 82 Rhode Island RILL 2.95 195 44 41 26 34 15 35 South Carolina SCH 3.28 247 47 44 50 27 21 58 Tennessee TSLA 1 4.46 226 30 43 35 22 24 72 Tennessee TSLA 2 6.73 76 8 8 4 7 6 43 Texas 1 4.17 286 45 49 40 33 34 85 Texas 2 3.79 395 64 79 59 56 34 103 Utah ULA 2.88 311 64 63 63 49 27 45 Vermont I 3.09 121 19 22 24 21 13 22 Vermont II 3.13 137 27 28 18 24 11 29 VA VHSL Northern A 3.06 263 63 61 35 27 23 54 VA VHSL NoWest/Cen 3.30 504 107 85 87 74 41 110 VA VISAA Private I 4.60 203 25 30 30 24 19 75 VA VISAA Private I 4.66 200 35 25 28 19 20 73 VA VSHL West/West- 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA Non VHSL Club 3.68 183 36 30 31 29 13 44 Washington I 3.57 201 39 37 32 25 18 50 Washington II 3.64 250 48 40 37 34 28 63 Wisconsin 3.04 269 54 56 45 36 32 46 VA VISAA Private I 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada East 2.75 454 126 103 70 60 29 66 West Virginia WVSL 3.59 87 14 16 12 11 7 27 Wyoming 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada West 3.18 85 29 10 16 6 6 18 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 6.87 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 TOTAL 3.11 27782 6033 5418 4642 3653 2693 5359 total games............... = 27782 ave error (goals)......... = 3.11 total upsets.............. = 3542 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.72 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.22 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.93 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.07 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.77 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.29
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