Mon Jun 18 18:46:43 EDT 2012

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 4.31 58 15 6 6 6 2 23 CA-North Coast Sec 3.20 373 72 76 72 42 27 84 CA-San Diego Secti 2.49 345 86 79 59 52 33 36 Arizona 3.17 91 19 17 13 18 4 20 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 3.23 171 36 35 29 19 15 37 CA-North Club 2.66 93 25 19 15 15 6 13 FL-Duval County 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 3.08 78 14 16 12 11 11 14 CA-South 2.76 388 84 87 64 49 47 57 CA-Central 2.82 47 12 13 6 5 3 8 Colorado 3.47 360 65 62 63 57 37 76 Connecticut 2.84 710 163 143 134 94 56 120 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.34 223 28 50 41 34 22 48 FL-FHSAA 3.13 879 194 180 132 110 84 179 FL-Southeast Club 4.49 28 4 5 3 6 1 9 Georgia 3.15 579 114 112 103 67 73 110 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 2.96 62 12 16 9 11 2 12 Illinois 3.19 385 80 72 64 46 47 76 Indiana 3.18 150 32 28 25 21 13 31 Iowa 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 3.61 81 10 16 15 12 7 21 Kentucky 3.48 107 20 20 13 16 10 28 Maine 3.17 264 54 50 42 41 28 49 DC Area 3.38 309 65 52 45 51 22 74 IAAM-A 3.07 137 32 23 25 15 14 28 IAAM-B 2.96 77 17 18 9 10 8 15 IAAM-C 3.99 85 15 11 10 11 15 23 MD-Private 4.93 120 13 20 14 15 13 45 MD-Public 3.26 962 209 173 169 128 82 201 Massachusetts 3.07 1544 314 286 273 240 149 282 MI-DI 3.14 589 114 117 101 82 60 115 MI-DII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota 3.02 442 87 88 83 54 44 86 MN-Club 4.01 27 5 5 5 0 6 6 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 3.15 264 52 42 57 38 29 46 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New England Prep 3.35 639 140 113 114 73 55 144 Rhode Island 3.37 284 58 55 52 30 24 65 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 2.91 324 76 59 58 47 28 56 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 3.28 1615 310 314 276 221 145 349 NJ Prep 4.89 94 12 15 11 8 6 42 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 4.25 217 42 37 35 28 12 63 NYC-Catholic Schoo 5.41 90 19 9 10 12 11 29 NY-I 2.67 444 96 109 73 59 45 62 NY-II 3.11 197 36 45 33 26 18 39 NY-III 2.68 339 72 75 64 49 37 42 NY-IV 2.86 107 25 23 19 13 9 18 NY-V 3.15 318 48 56 65 53 37 59 NY-VI 2.75 229 43 52 52 32 21 29 NY-VIII 2.90 402 80 84 90 46 32 70 NY-IX 2.72 119 27 28 21 19 7 17 NY-X 3.18 66 10 12 13 10 11 10 NY-XI 2.85 368 88 80 58 46 29 67 North Carolina 3.68 477 88 82 77 67 47 116 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 2.91 820 177 160 150 122 73 138 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.06 297 75 50 47 39 26 60 PA-East 3.24 1066 225 193 182 136 101 229 PA-Central 3.17 361 73 77 57 44 34 76 PA-West 2.68 271 70 61 41 31 33 35 South Carolina 3.39 172 40 24 25 24 21 38 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.87 241 40 36 35 35 27 68 Texas 3.35 282 54 58 33 41 32 64 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 2.60 186 42 46 32 27 16 23 Vermont 2.66 159 41 40 20 22 13 23 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.20 853 188 161 118 116 81 189 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-A 3.50 208 29 43 30 34 27 45 West Virginia 4.69 40 6 8 7 3 2 14 Wisconsin 3.11 136 29 25 30 11 11 30 MD-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.02 17585 3703 3537 3049 2418 1670 3221 total games............... = 17585 ave error (goals)......... = 3.02 total upsets.............. = 2011 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.06 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.17 % of games within 3 goals. = 58.51 % of games within 4 goals. = 72.26 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.76 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.32
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