Accuracy

  
 Tue May 22 13:00:38 EDT 2012
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    NCAA Division I     2.85     454     104    110     67     57     43     73
    NCAA Division II    2.92     349      83     64     51     48     41     62
    NCAA Division III   3.01    1502     317    310    264    185    143    283
    National Junior Co  4.21     246      38     44     35     31     21     77
    MCLA Division 1     5.08     736     138    133     97     79     70    219
    MCLA Division 2     5.76     797     145    126    101     81     84    260
    National College L 10.27     579     123    117     72     66     48    153
    Great Lakes Lacros  2.50     167      42     34     39     25      8     19
    Teams of Interest  23.95     262      47     17     13     27     13    145
    Post-Collegiate Le  5.46     255      52     49     53     36     22     43
    2011 Canadian Univ  8.50      72      14     14     17      8      8     11
    2011 Maritime Univ  3.62      24       5      1      4      4      3      7

    TOTAL               3.25    4961    1080    997    792    604    467   1024

     total games...............  =   4961
     ave error (goals).........  =   3.25
     total upsets..............  =    734
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  21.77
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  41.87
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  57.83
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  70.01
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  79.42
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  20.64