Wed Feb 4 16:47:54 EST 2015

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.86 457 108 108 68 54 45 74 NCAA Division II 2.93 350 83 66 50 48 41 62 NCAA Division III 3.01 1503 313 319 261 186 140 284 National Junior Co 4.21 246 38 44 35 31 21 77 MCLA Division 1 5.11 736 137 133 95 81 68 222 MCLA Division 2 5.78 797 151 117 95 88 80 266 National College L 10.27 579 122 120 74 63 45 155 Great Lakes Lacros 2.50 167 44 32 39 25 8 19 Teams of Interest 23.97 262 47 18 11 28 13 145 Post-Collegiate Le 5.27 273 59 48 59 35 22 50 2011 Canadian Univ 8.50 72 13 15 16 9 8 11 2011 Maritime Univ 3.62 24 5 1 4 4 3 7 TOTAL 3.25 4983 1090 1000 790 608 462 1038 total games............... = 4983 ave error (goals)......... = 3.25 total upsets.............. = 736 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.87 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.94 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.80 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.00 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.27 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.83
Create a free lacrosse website