Sun Sep 9 09:59:58 EDT 2012

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.86 457 108 108 68 54 45 74 NCAA Division II 2.92 350 83 63 53 48 41 62 NCAA Division III 3.01 1503 318 310 265 184 143 283 National Junior Co 4.21 246 38 44 35 31 21 77 MCLA Division 1 5.08 736 138 133 97 79 70 219 MCLA Division 2 5.76 797 145 126 101 81 84 260 National College L 10.28 579 123 117 72 66 48 153 Great Lakes Lacros 2.50 167 42 34 39 25 8 19 Teams of Interest 23.96 262 47 17 13 27 13 145 Post-Collegiate Le 5.28 273 60 50 56 36 23 48 2011 Canadian Univ 8.50 72 14 14 17 8 8 11 2011 Maritime Univ 3.62 24 5 1 4 4 3 7 TOTAL 3.24 4984 1092 995 798 601 470 1030 total games............... = 4984 ave error (goals)......... = 3.24 total upsets.............. = 739 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.91 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.87 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.89 % of games within 4 goals. = 69.94 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.37 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.67
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