Accuracy

  
 Sun May 20 20:54:08 EDT 2012
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    Women's Division I  3.09     791     161    141    141    105     96    147
    Women's Division I  3.72     676     116    124    102     81     66    187
    Women's Division I  3.28    1777     350    333    292    223    184    395
    Women's Community/  3.84     112      17     22     11     18     15     29
    WCLA Division 1     4.75     667     112     91     94     69     66    235
    WCLA Division 2     4.20     804     148    131    123    106     74    222

    TOTAL               3.35    4145     812    763    686    540    434    914

     total games...............  =   4145
     ave error (goals).........  =   3.35
     total upsets..............  =    574
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  19.59
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  38.00
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  54.55
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  67.58
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  78.05
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  22.05