Tue May 29 20:48:48 EDT 2012

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 3.08 794 161 143 143 105 95 147 Women's Division I 3.72 676 115 125 102 81 66 187 Women's Division I 3.28 1777 350 333 292 223 184 395 Women's Community/ 3.84 112 17 22 11 18 15 29 WCLA Division 1 4.75 667 112 91 94 69 66 235 WCLA Division 2 4.20 804 148 131 123 106 74 222 TOTAL 3.34 4148 812 765 688 538 433 914 total games............... = 4148 ave error (goals)......... = 3.34 total upsets.............. = 576 % of games within 1 goal.. = 19.58 % of games within 2 goals. = 38.02 % of games within 3 goals. = 54.60 % of games within 4 goals. = 67.57 % of games within 5 goals. = 78.01 % of games > 5 goals. = 22.03
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