Accuracy

  
 Sat May 25 10:30:33 EDT 2013
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    Alabama             3.05      92      14     26     16     10      9     17
    Arkansas            0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Arizona AHSLL       3.04     178      40     34     28     26     20     30
    Alaska              0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    CA North Coast CIF  3.27     481      94    100     78     55     52    102
    CA Non-CIF Club     3.27     265      54     55     37     41     20     58
    CA Central Coast C  3.32     328      58     62     57     48     35     68
    CA Southern Sectio  3.39     601     119    104    100     70     65    143
    CA San Diego CIF    3.05     480     102     88     85     63     46     96
    Colorado CHSAA      3.17     519     118     93     92     57     50    109
    Connecticut CIAC    2.89     751     168    171    122    104     60    126
    Montana             3.17      52      13      6      7      6     10     10
    Delaware DIAA       3.02     344      75     73     53     44     29     70
    Florida Central/No  3.26     678     134    127    112     83     77    145
    Florida South FHSA  3.19     583     123    103    112     65     50    130
    Florida Club        2.94     180      45     38     31     20     14     32
    Georgia 6A          3.42     398      76     69     59     53     41    100
    Georgia 5A-1A       3.50     429      75     72     63     63     49    107
    New York/Section 6  3.08      46      13      9      9      4      4      7
    Idaho               3.75     157      28     30     19     17     16     47
    Illinois IHSLA A    2.95     370      99     69     49     51     30     72
    Illinois IHSLA B    2.90     466     126     84     80     52     39     85
    Indiana             3.61     343      59     66     54     42     36     86
    Kansas              3.43     104      24     19     16      8     11     26
    Kentucky            2.95     247      65     46     39     29     28     40
    Louisiana LHSLL     2.88     109      28     30     15     10      4     22
    Maine MPA           2.91     250      55     59     43     30     21     42
    Maryland MIAA- A/D  4.92     229      37     33     24     19     18     98
    Maryland MIAA-B     4.11      66      10     12      7      8      6     23
    Maryland MIAA-C     3.54      98      20     12     13     21      8     24
    Maryland MILL/MAC/  3.96     356      66     53     46     51     29    111
    Maryland MPSSAA 43  2.94    1084     235    219    191    154     99    186
    Massachusetts MIAA  3.04    1407     301    284    218    188    160    256
    Massachusetts MIAA  3.24     236      51     48     33     29     25     50
    Massachusetts MIAA  2.97     223      51     44     35     33     19     41
    Michigan MHSAA      3.74     923     175    150    153    112     86    247
    Michigan Club       4.78     143      29     21     20     12      5     56
    Illinois Indep Clu  2.87      50      10     13      6     10      2      9
    Minnesota MSHSL     2.84     375      80     86     60     56     32     61
    Minnesota MBSLA     4.16     119      19     20     22      9      9     40
    Missouri MSLA       3.08     252      64     55     29     28     23     53
    Nebraska            3.89      64      11      7     15      6      7     18
    New England East/N  2.95     434     100     89     77     54     37     77
    New England West I  3.55     127      22     17     25     19     14     30
    New England West I  3.62     201      48     28     33     21     18     53
    New Hampshire NHIA  3.01     356      74     73     54     54     40     61
    New Jersey NJISAA/  2.83    1710     404    369    279    225    164    269
    Nevada              4.27     120      15     17     20     15     10     43
    New Mexico          2.50      34      11     10      5      2      1      5
    New York - NYC Met  3.70     207      49     29     34     24     27     44
    New York - Catholi  3.97     189      36     30     29     21     21     52
    New York - Section  3.10     463     100     91     81     56     37     98
    New York - Section  2.70     246      57     55     37     41     22     34
    New York - Section  2.98     345      78     75     48     35     51     58
    New York - Section  3.53     148      24     25     24     19     21     35
    New York - Section  3.16     335      69     51     60     49     42     64
    New York - Section  3.24     300      64     57     43     56     33     47
    New York - Section  2.75     429     104     94     63     66     42     60
    New York - Section  3.50     181      37     29     29     26     14     46
    New York - Section  3.59      69      11     12     13      9      8     16
    New York - Section  3.18     410      84     76     64     57     47     82
    North Carolina NCH  3.25     678     126    140    117     94     66    135
    North Carolina NCI  3.50     221      45     38     38     27     17     56
    North Carolina Clu  4.10      93      23     18     10     10      5     27
    South Dakota        0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Ohio Divisions 1/2  3.17     961     199    189    158    120     81    214
    OHSLA Local Playof  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    OHSLA Local Playof  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Ohio OHSLA Club     4.38     244      33     49     30     29     25     78
    Oklahoma            3.29      53       7     12     10      8      3     13
    Oregon OHSLA        3.28     462      93     88     76     64     38    103
    PA East PIAA        3.03     836     181    174    138    111     79    153
    PA IAC/Private      3.53     226      49     46     34     21     12     64
    PA West WPIAL       4.05     348      57     69     54     46     37     85
    PA Central PIAA     3.11     520     128     85     85     64     57    101
    Rhode Island RILL   2.87     203      46     47     31     19     27     33
    South Carolina SCH  3.06     264      55     51     46     37     27     48
    Tennessee TSLA 1    4.13     229      46     30     29     31     18     75
    Tennessee TSLA 2    4.92      80      15     10      9     11      3     32
    Texas 1             2.99     286      61     64     43     41     28     49
    Texas 2             3.29     398      89     71     55     52     47     84
    Utah ULA            3.29     336      61     63     58     42     36     76
    Vermont I           3.04      92      19     18     20      9      7     19
    Vermont II          3.48     103      19     19     13     15     12     25
    VA VHSL Northern A  3.18     255      53     49     38     30     35     50
    VA VHSL NoWest/Cen  3.10     488     109    103     72     58     44    102
    VA VISAA Private I  5.26     202      34     21     24     20     17     86
    VA VISAA Private I  4.30     190      30     30     24     24     20     62
    VA VSHL West/West-  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    VA Non VHSL Club    3.66     168      32     27     34     14     16     45
    Washington I        3.51     197      40     28     33     32     14     50
    Washington II       3.70     266      39     40     47     41     27     72
    Wisconsin           3.17     259      51     57     42     37     20     52
    VA VISAA Private I  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Canada East         3.07     315      99     62     50     35     18     51
    West Virginia WVSL  2.70     124      32     20     27     18      7     20
    Mississippi         4.94       5       1      1      1      0      0      2
    Canada West         9.02      12       1      1      1      0      0      9
    Hawaii - Aloha Lea  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0

    TOTAL               3.11   26714    5801   5284   4390   3474   2597   5189

     total games...............  =  26714
     ave error (goals).........  =   3.11
     total upsets..............  =   3284
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  21.72
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  41.50
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  57.93
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  70.93
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  80.65
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  19.42