Sat Oct 19 09:51:36 EDT 2013

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.18 93 14 26 16 10 9 18 Arkansas 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Arizona AHSLL 3.04 178 39 35 28 26 19 31 Alaska 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CA North Coast CIF 3.28 482 95 95 83 54 52 103 CA Non-CIF Club 3.26 269 59 50 41 40 23 56 CA Central Coast C 3.31 329 58 58 63 49 32 69 CA Southern Sectio 3.39 601 119 104 100 69 66 143 CA San Diego CIF 3.05 483 106 88 84 60 49 96 Colorado CHSAA 3.17 519 118 94 91 57 50 109 Connecticut CIAC 2.90 802 172 191 134 92 82 131 Montana 3.16 52 11 8 8 5 10 10 Delaware DIAA 3.03 346 73 76 50 47 30 70 Florida Central/No 3.25 678 133 129 111 82 78 145 Florida South FHSA 3.19 583 122 102 114 65 50 130 Florida Club 2.94 180 45 38 31 20 14 32 Georgia 6A 3.42 398 76 71 59 50 40 102 Georgia 5A-1A 3.50 429 75 73 63 62 48 108 New York/Section 6 3.10 46 13 9 9 4 4 7 Idaho 3.67 159 27 34 17 22 16 43 Illinois IHSLA A 3.00 378 92 80 48 46 34 78 Illinois IHSLA B 2.87 475 123 90 76 58 42 86 Indiana 3.61 349 64 62 56 44 35 88 Kansas 3.42 104 24 19 17 8 9 27 Kentucky 2.97 247 63 46 41 29 26 42 Louisiana LHSLL 2.88 109 28 30 15 10 4 22 Maine MPA 2.88 301 71 60 55 40 25 50 Maryland MIAA- A/D 4.96 229 37 31 24 20 18 99 Maryland MIAA-B 4.10 66 11 11 7 8 6 23 Maryland MIAA-C 3.54 98 18 14 13 22 7 24 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 3.91 370 71 56 43 60 28 112 Maryland MPSSAA 43 2.94 1086 245 211 190 150 103 187 Massachusetts MIAA 3.06 1499 309 303 237 196 167 287 Massachusetts MIAA 3.20 253 58 49 34 33 29 50 Massachusetts MIAA 3.05 238 57 44 37 29 25 46 Michigan MHSAA 3.71 956 177 163 153 112 99 252 Michigan Club 4.49 150 25 30 18 16 12 49 Illinois Indep Clu 2.75 55 11 17 7 7 4 9 Minnesota MSHSL 2.85 444 99 90 93 48 40 74 Minnesota MBSLA 3.76 137 22 25 24 11 13 42 Missouri MSLA 3.08 252 64 54 32 26 23 53 Nebraska 3.91 73 16 7 14 8 5 23 New England East/N 2.97 439 105 90 71 56 35 82 New England West I 3.54 127 24 16 24 19 14 30 New England West I 3.61 203 48 32 31 21 16 55 New Hampshire NHIA 3.10 385 75 78 60 60 39 73 New Jersey NJISAA/ 2.84 1735 404 383 278 228 167 275 Nevada 4.22 120 14 18 21 16 11 40 New Mexico 2.50 34 11 10 5 2 1 5 New York - NYC Met 3.77 208 49 28 35 24 27 45 New York - Catholi 4.02 196 37 32 28 26 19 54 New York - Section 3.11 470 101 95 79 59 38 98 New York - Section 2.69 258 60 60 36 43 26 33 New York - Section 3.12 361 82 72 48 39 50 70 New York - Section 3.50 154 24 31 18 23 22 36 New York - Section 3.17 343 67 58 61 47 43 67 New York - Section 3.29 309 62 64 40 56 39 48 New York - Section 2.81 437 100 97 64 70 42 64 New York - Section 3.60 190 38 31 28 26 16 51 New York - Section 3.70 71 11 13 12 9 8 18 New York - Section 3.20 419 86 76 69 55 49 84 North Carolina NCH 3.25 678 127 138 117 96 65 135 North Carolina NCI 3.48 222 45 38 37 29 15 58 North Carolina Clu 4.05 93 23 18 10 10 5 27 South Dakota 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio Divisions 1/2 3.23 1007 205 189 176 125 89 223 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Club 4.69 260 52 31 35 26 25 91 Oklahoma 3.29 53 7 12 10 8 3 13 Oregon OHSLA 3.28 465 94 88 81 61 37 104 PA East PIAA 3.10 847 176 170 139 123 81 158 PA IAC/Private 3.62 229 43 53 30 28 15 60 PA West WPIAL 4.24 353 55 73 51 48 35 91 PA Central PIAA 3.20 532 123 95 75 69 61 109 Rhode Island RILL 2.95 212 41 54 29 27 23 38 South Carolina SCH 3.07 265 55 51 46 37 27 49 Tennessee TSLA 1 4.14 229 45 31 31 28 19 75 Tennessee TSLA 2 4.92 80 15 10 9 11 3 32 Texas 1 3.00 286 62 62 44 41 28 49 Texas 2 3.30 398 90 70 55 51 48 84 Utah ULA 3.28 336 62 62 58 43 37 74 Vermont I 2.89 120 26 29 16 18 8 23 Vermont II 3.28 137 25 24 19 29 12 28 VA VHSL Northern A 3.19 260 59 46 38 29 33 55 VA VHSL NoWest/Cen 3.13 501 117 98 74 54 48 110 VA VISAA Private I 5.29 203 34 21 25 19 17 87 VA VISAA Private I 4.28 190 29 31 23 25 18 64 VA VSHL West/West- 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA Non VHSL Club 3.68 176 32 27 36 18 14 49 Washington I 3.45 200 42 30 32 30 16 50 Washington II 3.69 269 41 45 42 41 26 74 Wisconsin 3.12 297 62 53 64 39 24 55 VA VISAA Private I 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada East 3.09 486 122 110 84 54 38 78 West Virginia WVSL 2.73 124 32 20 26 19 4 23 Mississippi 4.94 5 1 1 1 0 0 2 Canada West 2.94 104 23 30 19 8 6 18 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.11 27730 5985 5501 4552 3593 2721 5398 total games............... = 27730 ave error (goals)......... = 3.11 total upsets.............. = 3441 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.58 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.42 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.84 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.79 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.61 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.47
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