Accuracy

  
 Sat May 18 11:18:08 EDT 2013
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    Alabama             3.06      92      14     26     17      9      9     17
    Arkansas            0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Arizona AHSLL       3.05     178      40     34     28     25     21     30
    Alaska              0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    CA North Coast CIF  3.30     472      93     97     70     61     50    101
    CA Non-CIF Club     3.26     261      56     52     40     37     21     55
    CA Central Coast C  3.34     328      56     65     55     49     35     68
    CA Southern Sectio  3.39     601     119    104    100     69     66    143
    CA San Diego CIF    3.04     468      98    103     70     56     54     87
    Colorado CHSAA      3.16     518     125     97     82     59     48    107
    Connecticut CIAC    2.92     685     150    150    116     99     59    111
    Montana             3.13      47       8     10      5      6      9      9
    Delaware DIAA       3.03     338      71     74     47     48     30     68
    Florida Central/No  3.25     678     135    126    112     82     78    145
    Florida South FHSA  3.18     583     123    103    112     65     50    130
    Florida Club        2.94     180      46     37     31     20     14     32
    Georgia 6A          3.43     397      73     76     55     52     42     99
    Georgia 5A-1A       3.50     428      75     74     62     61     49    107
    New York/Section 6  3.03      45      15      6     10      4      4      6
    Idaho               3.93     150      23     24     23     18     15     47
    Illinois IHSLA A    2.97     340      80     63     59     35     43     60
    Illinois IHSLA B    3.03     430      96     91     72     49     45     77
    Indiana             3.57     332      72     50     49     42     39     80
    Kansas              3.45     104      22     21     16      9     10     26
    Kentucky            2.97     246      64     46     40     27     29     40
    Louisiana LHSLL     2.88     109      28     30     15     10      4     22
    Maine MPA           2.88     212      45     47     43     27     11     39
    Maryland MIAA- A/D  4.99     227      39     28     25     16     21     98
    Maryland MIAA-B     4.06      66      10     13      7      7      6     23
    Maryland MIAA-C     3.53      98      20     13     11     23      7     24
    Maryland MILL/MAC/  3.99     355      64     54     49     51     28    109
    Maryland MPSSAA 43  2.94    1078     228    224    194    153     93    186
    Massachusetts MIAA  2.91    1239     284    255    185    170    126    219
    Massachusetts MIAA  3.00     212      49     41     39     22     18     43
    Massachusetts MIAA  3.06     198      39     39     37     33     18     32
    Michigan MHSAA      3.79     857     160    165    105    111     82    234
    Michigan Club       5.81     131      14     24      8     14     15     56
    Illinois Indep Clu  3.18      42       7     10      6      9      2      8
    Minnesota MSHSL     2.77     300      66     58     62     46     24     44
    Minnesota MBSLA     4.02      91      18     18     13      7      6     29
    Missouri MSLA       3.16     245      60     51     31     26     24     53
    Nebraska            3.62      56       6     14      8     10      6     12
    New England East/N  2.91     393      86     97     61     39     42     68
    New England West I  3.88     116      19     15     22     21      8     31
    New England West I  4.01     183      40     22     25     19     19     58
    New Hampshire NHIA  2.96     301      69     52     54     48     24     54
    New Jersey NJISAA/  2.76    1596     400    330    281    201    145    239
    Nevada              4.37     119      17     15     19     16      7     45
    New Mexico          2.51      34      11     10      5      2      1      5
    New York - NYC Met  3.88     198      46     24     34     25     24     45
    New York - Catholi  3.97     177      43     17     26     22     19     50
    New York - Section  3.27     438      90     92     68     58     38     92
    New York - Section  2.91     225      50     50     36     28     24     37
    New York - Section  2.98     331      77     73     47     34     43     57
    New York - Section  3.58     142      21     27     20     21     19     34
    New York - Section  3.14     313      57     55     59     51     26     65
    New York - Section  3.26     280      46     64     45     47     30     48
    New York - Section  2.78     423      98     89     71     63     43     59
    New York - Section  3.71     171      29     36     26     24     14     42
    New York - Section  3.74      63      13      7     12      5      7     19
    New York - Section  3.13     400      79     80     61     58     43     79
    North Carolina NCH  3.35     677     126    139    119     87     67    139
    North Carolina NCI  3.62     220      41     39     39     26     20     55
    North Carolina Clu  4.43      90      21     19      5     11      6     28
    South Dakota        0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Ohio Divisions 1/2  3.10     881     193    185    136    110     81    176
    OHSLA Local Playof  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    OHSLA Local Playof  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Ohio OHSLA Club     4.41     229      35     40     31     35     19     69
    Oklahoma            3.29      53       7     12     10      8      3     13
    Oregon OHSLA        3.28     450      98     78     72     61     45     96
    PA East PIAA        3.05     817     182    160    136    108     81    150
    PA IAC/Private      3.61     222      51     40     34     22     13     62
    PA West WPIAL       4.07     338      55     68     51     47     35     82
    PA Central PIAA     3.10     511     121     95     82     64     49    100
    Rhode Island RILL   2.94     188      45     34     32     23     21     33
    South Carolina SCH  3.08     264      54     51     48     35     26     50
    Tennessee TSLA 1    4.13     228      43     33     30     31     21     70
    Tennessee TSLA 2    4.79      79      17      8     10      9      7     28
    Texas 1             2.99     286      61     65     41     43     26     50
    Texas 2             3.29     398      89     71     55     52     47     84
    Utah ULA            3.29     334      64     59     58     41     40     72
    Vermont I           3.01      78      17     14     11     16      8     12
    Vermont II          3.10      85      15     20     13     17      5     15
    VA VHSL Northern A  3.15     252      52     49     39     33     34     45
    VA VHSL NoWest/Cen  3.06     475     108     95     75     62     41     94
    VA VISAA Private I  5.26     201      29     22     28     20     17     85
    VA VISAA Private I  4.16     188      29     33     27     22     20     57
    VA VSHL West/West-  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    VA Non VHSL Club    3.55     166      33     28     28     21     14     42
    Washington I        3.56     185      33     26     36     25     16     49
    Washington II       3.63     257      41     36     47     42     25     66
    Wisconsin           3.25     214      49     42     29     32     16     46
    VA VISAA Private I  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Canada East         3.05     293      99     58     39     28     25     44
    West Virginia WVSL  2.73     123      28     26     23     18      4     24
    Mississippi         4.94       5       1      1      1      0      0      2
    Canada West         9.29      12       2      0      1      0      0      9
    Hawaii - Aloha Lea  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0

    TOTAL               3.10   25385    5534   5058   4160   3318   2466   4866

     total games...............  =  25385
     ave error (goals).........  =   3.10
     total upsets..............  =   3113
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  21.80
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  41.73
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  58.11
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  71.18
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  80.90
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  19.17