Sat Oct 19 10:18:51 EDT 2013

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.96 57 13 6 8 7 6 17 CA-North Coast Sec 3.03 384 85 78 61 51 42 67 CA-San Diego Secti 2.85 376 83 82 75 45 26 65 Arizona 3.12 69 13 17 8 12 6 13 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 3.13 197 42 38 32 23 23 39 CA-North Club 3.57 101 19 23 7 13 9 30 FL-Duval County 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 2.75 79 16 19 17 10 6 11 CA-South 2.94 438 91 98 73 50 48 78 CA-Central 2.39 45 9 13 11 6 4 2 Colorado 3.63 350 67 58 50 47 37 91 Connecticut 2.78 704 169 145 119 94 69 108 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.04 210 48 45 27 27 19 44 FL-FHSAA 3.26 926 184 191 135 134 83 199 FL-Southeast Club 4.35 23 3 2 3 2 4 9 Georgia 3.26 629 134 105 117 72 60 141 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 3.05 56 17 6 9 5 7 12 Illinois 2.97 419 89 86 79 51 37 77 Indiana 2.62 172 40 43 30 21 13 25 Iowa 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 9.15 67 15 12 4 2 2 32 Kentucky 3.46 128 23 19 22 22 14 28 Maine 3.17 269 51 49 49 39 29 52 DC Area 4.29 271 41 39 37 34 24 96 IAAM-A 2.97 121 31 22 25 12 6 25 IAAM-B 2.58 69 19 15 14 9 3 9 IAAM-C 2.75 69 21 9 12 10 9 8 MD-Private 3.87 91 18 20 8 9 8 28 MD-Public 3.21 945 205 174 159 134 81 192 Massachusetts 3.04 1516 302 292 254 236 164 268 MI-DI 2.81 548 129 96 106 85 45 87 MI-DII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota 2.81 471 109 94 91 62 39 76 MN-Club 3.81 60 9 11 9 6 9 16 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 4.78 269 44 48 51 37 23 66 spare 2.62 30 7 8 5 4 0 6 New Mexico 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New England Prep 3.19 637 147 115 117 83 53 122 Rhode Island 3.48 267 50 68 36 34 30 49 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 3.02 325 75 61 57 40 26 66 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 3.19 1715 377 320 264 215 169 370 NJ Prep 3.98 92 19 10 18 10 5 30 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 3.01 243 57 47 42 33 18 46 NYC-Catholic Schoo 4.19 100 27 16 16 6 4 31 NY-I 2.58 461 112 109 86 66 30 58 NY-II 3.32 205 47 41 26 23 21 47 NY-III 2.85 329 73 74 58 41 30 53 NY-IV 3.40 102 18 18 17 15 12 22 NY-V 2.61 311 77 59 67 43 27 38 NY-VI 3.01 238 49 58 35 33 20 43 NY-VIII 2.88 393 106 84 69 39 33 62 NY-IX 3.23 125 25 22 25 23 5 25 NY-X 2.87 65 14 15 11 6 6 13 NY-XI 2.85 389 80 89 77 51 36 56 North Carolina 3.56 510 107 88 77 55 57 126 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 2.81 849 195 174 144 113 92 131 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.59 269 54 40 29 41 39 66 PA-East 3.23 1076 226 211 173 147 98 221 PA-Central 3.21 434 89 83 72 60 44 86 PA-West 3.29 283 59 56 47 45 19 57 South Carolina 3.06 211 55 37 31 32 16 40 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.76 265 53 41 34 27 37 73 Texas 3.43 284 50 55 44 36 31 68 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 2.66 175 47 32 34 22 19 21 Vermont 3.29 203 43 37 38 23 15 47 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.53 886 171 174 118 111 90 222 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-A 3.15 203 38 38 34 26 29 38 West Virginia 2.93 42 10 9 8 2 3 10 Wisconsin 2.90 133 27 32 22 23 10 19 MD-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 2.98 16639 3689 3348 2812 2259 1559 2986 total games............... = 16639 ave error (goals)......... = 2.98 total upsets.............. = 1850 % of games within 1 goal.. = 22.17 % of games within 2 goals. = 42.29 % of games within 3 goals. = 59.19 % of games within 4 goals. = 72.77 % of games within 5 goals. = 82.14 % of games > 5 goals. = 17.95
Create a free lacrosse website