Accuracy

  
 Tue May 21 07:56:25 EDT 2013
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    Alabama             3.81      57      16      6      7      7      5     16
    CA-North Coast Sec  3.34     377      78     69     54     48     43     85
    CA-San Diego Secti  2.83     375      85     80     73     45     29     63
    Arizona             3.12      69      13     17      8     12      6     13
    CA-Cntrl Coast Sec  3.96     181      31     31     22     16     26     55
    CA-North Club       3.62      96      18     18     12      9     11     28
    FL-Duval County     0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    FL-West Club        2.75      79      16     19     17     10      6     11
    CA-South            2.98     429      96     91     71     46     43     82
    CA-Central          1.29      23      12      5      4      1      0      1
    Colorado            3.57     347      71     59     45     50     33     89
    Connecticut         2.84     613     145    126    116     74     55     97
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Delaware            3.16     207      47     46     24     22     24     44
    FL-FHSAA            3.25     916     190    187    128    129     83    199
    FL-Southeast Club   4.07      23       4      0      4      4      5      6
    Georgia             3.28     629     129    105    120     73     63    139
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Idaho               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Illinois            2.76     388      93     76     82     47     29     61
    Indiana             3.23     153      35     31     26     19     12     30
    Iowa                0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Kansas              7.13      66      15     12      4      2      2     31
    Kentucky            3.77     128      21     17     22     25     16     27
    Maine               3.21     175      30     34     32     21     17     41
    DC Area             4.20     272      45     36     38     35     27     91
    IAAM-A              2.96     121      28     24     25     11     10     23
    IAAM-B              2.53      69      19     15     14      8      4      9
    IAAM-C              2.79      69      20     12     13      8      6     10
    MD-Private          4.11      91      17     19      7     11      7     30
    MD-Public           3.20     942     202    176    162    131     82    189
    Massachusetts       3.04    1252     245    254    214    197    127    215
    MI-DI               2.81     481     112     92     92     67     42     76
    MI-DII              0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    MI-Club             0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Minnesota           2.68     337      88     63     63     44     36     43
    MN-Club             2.96      23       8      4      1      4      1      5
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Missouri            4.16     268      48     48     49     37     24     62
    spare               2.62      30       7      8      5      4      0      6
    New Mexico          0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    New England Prep    2.85     465     110     95     86     59     35     80
    Rhode Island        2.95     187      39     46     38     21     11     32
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    New Hampshire       3.42     249      50     50     36     30     21     62
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    NJ Public           3.20    1629     358    303    242    213    147    366
    NJ Prep             4.80      92      12     14     13     10      4     39
    NY-Section VII      0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    NYC-Metro Schools   2.97     234      55     42     44     30     19     44
    NYC-Catholic Schoo  4.35      86      20     14     13      3      7     29
    NY-I                2.59     440     114     90     83     68     31     54
    NY-II               2.96     137      29     33     21     15     15     24
    NY-III              2.82     300      66     76     36     37     38     47
    NY-IV               2.99      76      11     18     17      8     10     12
    NY-V                2.55     284      68     67     55     37     26     31
    NY-VI               2.84     196      47     44     37     21     19     28
    NY-VIII             2.75     354      96     73     72     31     25     57
    NY-IX               3.45     117      19     17     27     25      4     25
    NY-X                3.16      32       7      8      2      3      6      6
    NY-XI               2.89     349      71     68     72     48     35     55
    North Carolina      3.57     483      95     92     71     54     47    124
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    NC-Club             0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Ohio                2.97     818     189    150    144    111     86    138
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Oregon              3.61     269      53     40     29     41     39     67
    PA-East             3.25    1029     213    192    184    132     98    210
    PA-Central          3.27     404      77     70     70     70     39     78
    PA-West             4.12     270      50     44     45     40     22     69
    South Carolina      3.15     199      49     39     26     27     19     39
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Tennessee           3.63     264      48     44     38     35     37     62
    Texas               3.46     284      50     55     44     35     32     68
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Utah                2.72     108      29     20     22     15      8     14
    Vermont             3.97     124      25     21     21     15     13     29
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Virginia            3.61     841     166    154    117    111     76    217
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    spare               0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    WA-B                0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    WA-A                3.17     188      40     24     42     22     20     40
    West Virginia       6.44      32       9      2      5      0      1     15
    Wisconsin           2.53      93      19     26     17     14      6     11
    MD-Club             0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0
    Georgia-North Club  0.00       0       0      0      0      0      0      0

    TOTAL               2.99   15020    3343   2992   2565   2021   1411   2696

     total games...............  =  15020
     ave error (goals).........  =   2.99
     total upsets..............  =   1651
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  22.26
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  42.18
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  59.25
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  72.71
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  82.10
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  17.95