Wed Mar 19 12:34:05 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.85 477 108 106 82 56 34 91 NCAA Division II 3.21 382 70 80 59 61 38 74 NCAA Division III 3.32 1639 322 298 300 199 169 351 National Junior Co 5.69 233 34 28 33 32 25 81 MCLA Division 1 4.33 756 167 137 103 85 68 196 MCLA Division 2 4.98 692 117 112 99 91 64 209 National College L 7.95 527 90 107 95 55 45 135 Great Lakes Lacros 2.17 150 38 42 34 21 8 7 Teams of Interest 22.07 228 44 14 14 8 13 135 Post-Collegiate Le 6.35 229 56 44 41 30 22 36 7.61 82 21 7 5 2 4 43 8.46 24 6 2 0 2 1 13 TOTAL 3.38 4914 1012 938 828 610 462 1068 total games............... = 4914 ave error (goals)......... = 3.38 total upsets.............. = 749 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.59 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.68 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.53 % of games within 4 goals. = 68.95 % of games within 5 goals. = 78.35 % of games > 5 goals. = 21.73
Create a free lacrosse website