Accuracy

  
 Sun May 19 21:35:21 EDT 2013
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    NCAA Division I     2.85     474     104    106     83     55     37     89
    NCAA Division II    3.22     381      70     80     57     64     36     74
    NCAA Division III   3.32    1638     317    306    293    202    167    353
    National Junior Co  5.66     233      35     30     30     33     25     80
    MCLA Division 1     4.35     758     168    135    103     86     66    200
    MCLA Division 2     4.99     691     117    112     99     91     64    208
    National College L  7.84     527      89    106     96     58     44    134
    Great Lakes Lacros  2.17     150      38     42     34     21      8      7
    Teams of Interest  22.53     225      41     15     13     11     11    134
    Post-Collegiate Le  4.38     197      45     53     24     26     22     27
      7.61      82      21      7      5      2      4     43
      8.46      24       6      2      0      2      1     13

    TOTAL               3.40    4880     988    954    804    614    459   1064

     total games...............  =   4880
     ave error (goals).........  =   3.40
     total upsets..............  =    746
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  20.25
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  39.80
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  56.27
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  68.85
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  78.26
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  21.80