Accuracy

  
 Sat May 18 22:10:04 EDT 2013
 The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in
 goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that
 for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals.
 The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is
 shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater
 than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal
 error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games.

 Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR  defeating a team with 
 a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an  upset on the UPSET page 
 where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals.

     Region           Average    No       Measuring (goals) how close the PR
                    Goal error Games      predicted actual goal difference 
                                        [0,1]  [1,2]  [2,3]  [3,4]  [4,5]    >5  

    Women's Division I  3.09     865     164    170    138    134     87    172
    Women's Division I  3.50     749     144    124    117    106     78    180
    Women's Division I  3.31    1956     390    376    292    277    200    421
    Women's Community/  3.50      94      20     15     18     11     12     18
    WCLA Division 1     3.52     610     121    101     96     73     66    153
    WCLA Division 2     3.37     672     152    130     95     79     69    147

    TOTAL               3.19    4409     906    833    695    617    459    902

     total games...............  =   4409
     ave error (goals).........  =   3.19
     total upsets..............  =    535
     % of games within 1 goal..  =  20.55
     % of games within 2 goals.  =  39.44
     % of games within 3 goals.  =  55.21
     % of games within 4 goals.  =  69.20
     % of games within 5 goals.  =  79.61
     % of games    >   5 goals.  =  20.46