Wed Oct 9 18:09:14 EDT 2013

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 3.09 868 167 167 140 135 86 173 Women's Division I 3.47 750 145 125 118 108 74 180 Women's Division I 3.30 1957 389 377 294 279 197 421 Women's Community/ 3.50 94 20 15 18 11 12 18 WCLA Division 1 3.52 610 121 101 96 73 66 153 WCLA Division 2 3.37 672 152 130 95 79 69 147 TOTAL 3.17 4374 900 821 695 621 448 890 total games............... = 4374 ave error (goals)......... = 3.17 total upsets.............. = 534 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.58 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.35 % of games within 3 goals. = 55.24 % of games within 4 goals. = 69.43 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.68 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.35
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