Mon Jul 14 08:00:12 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 1 2.92 68 17 13 13 7 3 15 Alabama 2 3.14 58 9 12 11 8 7 11 Arizona AHSLL 3.22 193 46 34 21 25 24 43 Intersectional Ind 10.05 61 2 2 2 1 4 50 California-North C 3.29 489 93 92 76 66 41 121 California-Non-CIF 3.02 173 37 36 31 18 18 33 California-Central 3.20 333 77 57 49 42 43 65 California-Souther 2.91 633 139 151 100 79 56 108 California-San Die 3.07 465 105 79 90 57 45 89 Colorado CHSAA 3.13 532 102 118 89 74 47 102 Connecticut CIAC 3.00 824 177 172 135 118 74 148 Montana 3.59 65 16 9 10 7 6 17 Delaware DIAA 3.54 338 60 57 51 50 37 83 Florida Central/No 3.29 744 153 131 113 116 79 152 Florida South FHSA 3.51 607 120 104 90 90 57 146 Florida Club 3.31 128 27 27 23 12 11 28 Georgia 6A 3.42 403 90 64 59 60 39 91 Georgia 5A-1A 3.53 454 92 77 70 54 47 114 New York/Section 6 3.02 38 7 5 10 7 1 8 Idaho 3.48 197 35 29 32 31 21 49 Illinois IHSLA A/B 2.98 737 165 155 117 99 74 127 Illinois IHSLA B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indiana 3.19 349 65 77 56 48 40 63 Kansas 3.24 98 17 24 15 14 9 19 Kentucky 3.11 252 48 53 52 31 24 44 Louisiana LHSLL 3.87 101 21 18 8 9 9 36 Maine MPA 3.01 296 70 62 47 28 29 60 Maryland MIAA- A/D 4.91 227 28 36 22 25 24 92 Maryland MIAA-B 2.91 96 20 23 20 10 5 18 Maryland MIAA-C 3.71 44 8 9 7 6 4 10 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 3.81 333 56 65 48 50 27 87 Maryland MPSSAA 43 2.93 1078 250 214 174 152 99 189 Massachusetts MIAA 3.02 1576 323 335 254 217 152 295 Massachusetts MIAA 3.62 300 45 59 48 29 32 87 Massachusetts MIAA 3.04 248 51 51 49 20 31 46 Michigan MHSAA 3.21 970 195 198 169 106 101 201 Michigan Club 4.81 116 17 20 14 11 11 43 Illinois Indep Clu 3.53 71 12 16 6 8 11 18 Minnesota MSHSL 2.70 488 127 103 86 66 43 63 Minnesota MBSLA 3.51 114 33 24 13 12 8 24 Missouri MSLA 3.08 267 60 52 45 32 20 58 Nebraska 2.58 81 26 12 17 12 6 8 New England East/N 3.03 449 82 89 104 60 40 74 New England West I 3.91 137 25 31 21 13 8 39 New England West I 3.74 211 39 39 31 29 15 58 New Hampshire NHIA 3.11 385 86 67 57 58 41 76 New Jersey NJISAA/ 3.07 1815 367 373 306 247 185 337 Nevada 3.76 175 38 22 31 18 19 47 New Mexico 2.81 31 4 7 7 7 4 2 New York - NYC Met 3.40 208 33 42 33 28 28 44 New York - Catholi 3.15 218 42 44 35 30 18 49 New York - Section 3.06 486 111 106 80 59 33 97 New York - Section 3.20 264 52 43 47 39 28 55 New York - Section 3.34 371 76 67 52 47 42 87 New York - Section 3.48 162 30 32 26 16 11 47 New York - Section 3.21 346 72 71 47 41 35 80 New York - Section 3.61 297 57 55 43 32 36 74 New York - Section 2.79 441 106 87 75 73 41 59 New York - Section 3.40 194 40 36 30 23 18 47 New York - Section 2.85 69 19 13 14 7 3 13 New York - Section 3.05 416 93 87 66 54 38 78 North Carolina NCH 3.20 752 151 149 132 98 71 151 North Carolina NCI 3.23 194 34 40 33 22 21 44 North Carolina Clu 3.18 60 15 8 13 9 3 12 South Dakota 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Divisio 3.48 1052 201 174 183 161 97 236 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Club 4.53 221 27 32 32 25 22 83 Oklahoma 4.80 110 15 15 19 11 10 40 Oregon OHSLA 3.15 490 97 98 80 67 44 104 Pennsylvania East 2.96 845 185 178 139 117 77 149 Pennsylvania IAC/P 4.05 235 38 36 28 34 25 74 Pennsylvania West 3.43 379 86 73 54 44 36 86 Pennsylvania Centr 3.04 537 119 99 90 78 54 97 Rhode Island RILL 3.22 230 45 41 43 28 25 48 South Carolina SCH 2.83 310 75 52 59 44 25 55 Tennessee TSLA 1 4.05 255 42 43 37 34 28 71 Tennessee ITD 5.20 129 16 16 13 14 15 55 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.71 277 56 46 36 38 22 79 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.63 410 70 73 62 51 48 106 Utah UHSLL/ULA Div 3.20 362 77 66 60 44 34 81 Vermont I 3.44 127 23 25 16 15 19 29 Vermont II 3.13 138 32 26 18 19 16 27 Virginia VHSL Nort 3.11 254 65 50 30 31 26 52 Virginia VHSL NoWe 3.26 510 101 98 83 61 49 118 Virginia VISAA Pri 4.46 197 30 25 27 26 17 72 Virginia VISAA Pri 4.54 178 30 23 17 19 24 65 VA VSHL West/West- 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA Non VHSL Club 3.29 199 41 40 29 25 22 42 Washington I 3.88 327 57 59 50 31 30 100 Washington II 3.87 273 57 45 33 34 19 85 Wisconsin 2.66 320 76 77 53 43 30 41 New York - PSAL De 2.16 21 2 11 3 2 1 2 Canada East 2.40 476 130 105 100 51 44 46 West Virginia WVSL 5.07 134 21 22 15 10 18 48 Mississippi 4.04 35 6 3 4 5 5 12 Canada West 4.21 121 19 22 23 19 8 30 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.13 28644 6067 5684 4726 3779 2774 5630 total games............... = 28644 ave error (goals)......... = 3.13 total upsets.............. = 3573 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.18 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.02 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.52 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.72 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.40 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.66
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