Sat Apr 19 23:00:35 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 1 2.83 56 15 10 10 7 2 12 Alabama 2 3.24 45 4 11 10 6 4 10 Arizona AHSLL 3.28 156 26 36 25 19 17 33 Alaska 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 California-North C 3.25 334 62 59 58 42 40 73 California-Non-CIF 3.00 138 35 31 17 17 11 27 California-Central 3.13 219 54 38 28 30 27 42 California-Souther 2.73 456 124 94 74 60 29 75 California-San Die 3.15 270 61 42 47 38 26 56 Colorado CHSAA 3.15 374 85 73 62 53 32 69 Connecticut CIAC 2.55 182 53 49 29 18 10 23 Montana 4.38 32 6 6 3 3 3 11 Delaware DIAA 3.16 172 40 33 27 25 12 35 Florida Central/No 3.29 726 144 133 119 103 79 148 Florida South FHSA 3.49 592 110 114 83 82 60 143 Florida Club 4.45 122 28 23 17 13 8 33 Georgia 6A 3.52 307 50 67 59 37 23 71 Georgia 5A-1A 3.54 344 69 56 60 43 30 86 New York/Section 6 0.07 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 4.63 105 21 6 17 16 8 37 Illinois IHSLA A/B 2.99 343 75 87 50 39 34 58 Illinois IHSLA B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indiana 3.67 184 37 33 28 25 18 43 Kansas 3.07 80 19 16 13 7 8 17 Kentucky 3.40 162 38 28 33 17 7 39 Louisiana LHSLL 4.20 97 16 20 12 7 6 36 Maine MPA 6.80 13 4 1 0 0 1 7 Maryland MIAA- A/D 4.70 163 21 21 25 18 13 65 Maryland MIAA-B 3.06 61 18 14 6 8 3 12 Maryland MIAA-C 4.37 26 5 3 4 3 5 6 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 3.99 209 41 40 34 15 19 60 Maryland MPSSAA 43 2.78 580 145 112 108 73 54 88 Massachusetts MIAA 2.72 554 137 121 89 78 47 82 Massachusetts MIAA 3.59 94 16 20 12 11 6 29 Massachusetts MIAA 2.96 69 15 15 15 8 8 8 Michigan MHSAA 3.36 317 79 67 44 40 37 50 Michigan Club 10.88 33 3 2 0 1 3 24 Illinois Indep Clu 2.48 24 7 6 5 2 0 4 Minnesota MSHSL 1.90 45 26 7 3 1 3 5 Minnesota MBSLA 3.23 26 7 4 4 2 3 6 Missouri MSLA 3.15 160 36 31 28 16 13 36 Nebraska 2.57 32 8 5 9 4 4 2 New England East/N 2.83 169 50 35 31 16 11 26 New England West I 4.67 61 16 8 8 3 4 22 New England West I 4.42 70 13 8 14 4 7 24 New Hampshire NHIA 2.67 40 17 4 6 3 3 7 New Jersey NJISAA/ 2.67 798 209 163 135 117 73 101 Nevada 3.90 119 20 29 11 12 10 37 New Mexico 2.76 21 4 3 5 5 3 1 New York - NYC Met 3.32 96 21 15 16 15 10 19 New York - Catholi 3.25 107 23 22 14 13 14 21 New York - Section 2.70 206 60 40 40 20 13 33 New York - Section 3.48 98 25 15 14 13 9 22 New York - Section 3.03 142 29 38 21 17 10 27 New York - Section 3.57 73 15 12 12 11 6 17 New York - Section 3.33 119 22 22 25 11 11 28 New York - Section 4.27 83 21 10 10 10 7 25 New York - Section 2.66 252 63 54 42 37 23 33 New York - Section 3.56 75 18 7 15 12 6 17 New York - Section 2.63 11 5 1 2 1 0 2 New York - Section 2.86 218 50 45 42 27 25 29 North Carolina NCH 3.29 513 111 101 82 64 42 113 North Carolina NCI 4.02 135 24 21 18 16 17 39 North Carolina Clu 3.26 49 11 5 13 8 2 10 South Dakota 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Divisio 4.74 404 72 83 66 36 26 121 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Club 9.14 72 13 7 9 1 1 41 Oklahoma 4.54 88 21 7 12 7 5 36 Oregon OHSLA 3.45 253 50 56 35 30 21 61 Pennsylvania East 3.64 428 98 68 68 52 49 93 Pennsylvania IAC/P 6.56 135 24 9 22 4 16 60 Pennsylvania West 4.25 193 37 33 23 24 23 53 Pennsylvania Centr 3.00 299 65 64 55 38 31 46 Rhode Island RILL 2.81 66 15 13 17 8 5 8 South Carolina SCH 2.87 299 69 54 58 43 24 51 Tennessee TSLA 1 5.24 197 27 30 26 21 15 78 Tennessee TSLA 2 6.32 91 11 9 12 6 10 43 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.86 258 45 40 42 36 27 68 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.56 386 72 56 69 46 50 93 Utah UHSLL/ULA Div 3.17 247 51 49 40 30 26 51 Vermont I 3.95 21 8 1 2 4 2 4 Vermont II 6.87 7 1 0 0 3 0 3 Virginia VHSL Nort 3.55 133 30 25 18 17 12 31 Virginia VHSL NoWe 3.81 227 48 41 28 27 19 64 Virginia VISAA Pri 5.39 130 15 15 14 14 9 63 Virginia VISAA Pri 5.58 99 21 10 8 12 4 44 VA VSHL West/West- 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA Non VHSL Club 3.68 107 24 22 6 19 10 26 Washington I 4.66 177 43 20 21 14 11 68 Washington II 5.49 143 27 18 11 14 6 67 Wisconsin 1.72 53 25 12 6 4 2 4 VA VISAA Private I 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada East 4.57 55 17 9 6 6 2 15 West Virginia WVSL 5.83 95 15 7 12 10 11 40 Mississippi 3.97 23 8 2 1 3 1 8 Canada West 6.80 8 2 0 0 0 2 4 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.18 14167 3302 2752 2314 1787 1277 2749 total games............... = 14167 ave error (goals)......... = 3.18 total upsets.............. = 1767 % of games within 1 goal.. = 23.31 % of games within 2 goals. = 42.73 % of games within 3 goals. = 59.07 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.68 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.69 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.40
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