Thu Apr 24 01:45:50 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.51 57 14 10 7 2 6 18 CA-North Coast Sec 3.59 298 42 66 52 38 32 68 CA-San Diego Secti 3.28 283 58 55 46 39 27 58 Arizona 2.86 39 4 10 8 8 4 5 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 4.00 109 23 20 15 9 15 27 CA-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 3.90 49 6 9 7 8 5 14 CA-South 3.06 364 88 60 61 46 35 74 CA-Central 1.78 9 4 0 1 3 1 0 Colorado 3.33 233 53 42 39 26 23 50 Connecticut 2.62 162 50 36 23 15 14 24 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.45 107 29 16 18 16 7 21 FL-FHSAA 3.21 1034 204 200 167 164 100 199 FL-Ocean Springs 3.18 5 0 2 1 1 0 1 Georgia 3.40 530 102 114 75 68 53 118 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 2.80 28 5 8 4 4 2 5 Illinois 3.24 207 43 33 44 30 14 43 Indiana 3.33 99 25 16 11 14 9 24 Iowa 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 3.65 48 13 7 4 4 6 14 Kentucky 3.87 101 21 19 12 9 5 35 Maine 2.78 5 2 1 1 0 0 1 DC Area 3.86 153 32 20 24 19 20 38 IAAM-A 2.77 102 31 23 12 12 5 19 IAAM-B 2.33 40 14 10 3 5 2 6 IAAM-C 3.39 50 8 8 8 10 6 10 MD-Private 5.32 47 5 11 5 5 3 18 MD-Public 3.26 485 100 101 76 61 39 108 Massachusetts 2.67 499 144 104 88 51 43 69 Michigan 2.62 197 50 46 38 19 17 27 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota 1.76 97 50 18 10 6 0 13 MN-Club 3.19 3 0 2 0 0 0 1 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 3.06 128 29 25 16 17 17 24 Nevada 3.00 30 6 10 8 1 1 4 New Mexico 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New England Prep 2.89 129 44 29 16 9 5 26 Rhode Island 2.87 69 16 13 10 13 5 12 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 1.41 49 33 4 2 5 2 3 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 2.77 840 190 170 174 122 75 109 NJ Prep 6.50 41 6 3 6 3 3 20 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 3.90 104 23 19 19 10 11 22 NYC-Catholic Schoo 6.42 45 6 7 5 8 4 15 NY-I 2.86 199 46 48 24 32 18 31 NY-II 4.21 59 13 9 6 5 10 16 NY-III 3.18 127 27 35 21 14 9 21 NY-IV 3.56 35 7 9 6 4 2 7 NY-V 3.03 112 32 23 17 12 4 24 NY-VI 2.48 46 18 8 8 5 0 7 NY-VIII 3.18 220 45 35 40 45 19 36 NY-IX 3.16 40 8 10 5 5 2 10 NY-X 12.94 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 NY-XI 3.24 199 39 33 39 27 18 43 North Carolina 3.74 353 71 63 51 48 40 80 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 2.76 408 103 88 71 47 35 64 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.26 171 36 38 24 25 13 35 PA-East 3.40 585 123 105 90 74 61 132 PA-Central 3.10 278 61 53 42 38 31 53 PA-West 3.46 179 37 42 21 21 21 37 South Carolina 3.06 212 42 39 50 27 18 36 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.89 211 45 39 29 20 23 55 Texas 3.28 275 59 57 33 31 33 62 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 2.34 137 41 34 17 20 13 12 Vermont 3.68 18 7 4 2 0 1 4 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.53 414 89 69 59 55 50 92 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA 2.91 122 27 25 19 17 12 22 West Virginia 3.40 15 6 2 2 1 0 4 Wisconsin 1.16 21 12 5 3 0 1 0 MD-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 2.92 8387 2021 1694 1391 1125 778 1393 total games............... = 8387 ave error (goals)......... = 2.92 total upsets.............. = 864 % of games within 1 goal.. = 24.10 % of games within 2 goals. = 44.29 % of games within 3 goals. = 60.88 % of games within 4 goals. = 74.29 % of games within 5 goals. = 83.57 % of games > 5 goals. = 16.61
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