Wed Jun 25 09:52:12 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.12 97 21 19 16 16 8 17 CA-North Coast Sec 3.46 419 87 73 71 43 37 108 CA-San Diego Secti 3.27 412 81 76 76 54 43 82 Arizona 3.16 68 9 21 10 6 9 13 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 3.71 220 46 36 32 26 21 59 CA-North Club 2.61 97 30 10 23 12 11 11 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 3.95 52 9 7 4 9 10 13 CA-South 3.17 510 95 103 97 64 51 100 CA-Central 3.22 46 12 8 9 5 2 10 Colorado 3.58 367 81 58 65 43 30 90 Connecticut 2.86 763 157 156 138 117 82 113 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.30 225 43 46 33 35 23 45 FL-FHSAA 3.16 1067 212 213 172 157 111 202 FL-Ocean Springs 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia 3.22 675 133 131 99 89 76 147 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 2.55 55 15 9 14 4 6 7 Illinois 3.03 482 94 103 89 67 41 88 Indiana 2.91 200 41 43 42 24 22 28 PA-District 1 3.56 678 130 121 99 80 73 175 Kansas 3.44 86 19 12 11 8 14 22 Kentucky 3.31 168 36 41 18 17 14 42 Maine 2.48 253 76 61 25 39 18 34 DC Area 3.33 285 60 61 40 40 27 57 IAAM-A 2.79 132 40 28 22 13 8 21 IAAM-B 2.43 66 17 18 12 7 4 8 IAAM-C 3.10 82 21 12 11 14 7 17 MD-Private 5.02 81 11 11 13 12 7 27 MD-Public 3.25 903 180 175 171 106 82 189 Massachusetts 2.99 1688 359 337 277 227 174 314 Michigan 3.18 568 123 100 91 83 55 116 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota 2.84 452 96 98 83 55 39 81 MN-Club 3.16 30 9 5 3 4 2 7 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 3.13 267 52 50 47 39 28 51 Nevada 3.34 42 10 10 4 6 2 10 New Mexico 8.95 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 New England Prep 3.32 612 134 118 109 65 56 130 Rhode Island 3.27 263 60 51 54 27 21 50 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 3.31 336 69 59 45 49 37 77 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 3.03 1766 397 340 310 217 155 347 NJ Prep 5.07 91 11 14 9 9 10 38 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 3.30 245 45 46 39 42 28 45 NYC-Catholic Schoo 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NY-I 2.70 459 107 107 75 60 45 65 NY-II 3.31 154 31 23 29 25 10 36 NY-III 3.03 335 70 72 55 45 29 64 NY-IV 3.11 96 17 18 15 16 10 20 NY-V 2.76 309 76 57 56 50 27 43 NY-VI 2.75 220 55 36 42 36 18 33 NY-VIII 3.13 448 88 91 72 69 44 84 NY-IX 3.25 107 20 23 21 8 7 28 NY-X 3.34 61 15 8 8 8 7 15 NY-XI 3.08 372 79 76 60 49 34 74 North Carolina 3.44 533 103 96 87 82 50 115 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 2.94 880 190 185 153 101 94 157 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.39 286 52 67 35 40 29 63 PA-East 3.99 485 89 72 67 52 50 155 PA-Central 3.35 503 96 97 83 70 48 109 PA-West 3.32 323 62 54 49 52 44 62 South Carolina 3.05 213 43 39 49 27 19 36 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.56 254 48 48 41 34 22 61 Texas 3.47 324 62 63 46 40 27 86 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 2.38 181 45 47 32 22 20 15 Vermont 3.24 204 49 38 25 33 17 42 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.54 897 166 162 149 111 103 206 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA 3.12 197 39 35 33 27 27 36 West Virginia 4.00 55 11 9 2 10 8 15 Wisconsin 2.79 118 27 24 20 19 10 18 Canada East 2.77 72 26 8 8 14 6 10 Canada West 3.80 61 12 15 9 3 5 17 TOTAL 3.02 17579 3806 3522 2976 2317 1736 3234 total games............... = 17579 ave error (goals)......... = 3.02 total upsets.............. = 2072 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.65 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.69 % of games within 3 goals. = 58.62 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.80 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.67 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.40
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