Sat Apr 19 22:10:17 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.28 55 13 11 7 2 8 14 CA-North Coast Sec 3.29 280 44 61 56 37 21 61 CA-San Diego Secti 3.16 254 51 49 48 34 31 41 Arizona 2.86 39 4 10 8 8 4 5 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 3.53 97 24 22 9 10 10 22 CA-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-Duval County 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 3.46 43 8 8 8 2 9 8 CA-South 3.15 339 74 62 54 42 38 69 CA-Central 1.78 9 4 0 1 3 1 0 Colorado 3.36 212 41 45 31 31 20 44 Connecticut 2.38 99 37 21 10 9 8 14 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.46 93 23 19 16 9 8 18 FL-FHSAA 3.22 1015 196 207 160 149 103 200 FL-Southeast Club 3.35 5 1 1 0 1 0 2 Georgia 3.45 503 97 101 79 62 52 112 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 2.80 28 5 8 4 4 2 5 Illinois 3.50 180 33 36 32 27 14 38 Indiana 3.29 90 22 16 14 10 4 24 Iowa 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 3.98 42 9 6 4 5 3 15 Kentucky 3.94 96 17 25 8 5 7 34 Maine 3.99 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 DC Area 4.59 142 23 32 14 12 18 43 IAAM-A 2.76 93 32 23 11 7 0 20 IAAM-B 2.31 38 11 11 5 4 4 3 IAAM-C 3.22 49 10 7 9 9 6 8 MD-Private 6.56 40 4 5 4 4 3 20 MD-Public 3.31 429 93 82 71 47 36 100 Massachusetts 2.64 447 135 92 76 51 32 61 MI-DI 2.68 159 35 45 28 19 11 21 MI-DII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota 1.59 42 25 1 7 3 1 5 MN-Club 2.58 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 3.46 110 26 25 8 18 9 24 Nevada 2.62 22 6 6 4 3 0 3 New Mexico 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New England Prep 2.69 96 37 24 10 7 1 17 Rhode Island 2.52 58 18 10 14 6 3 7 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 1.58 30 21 0 2 2 0 5 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 2.82 724 165 164 129 106 61 99 NJ Prep 6.97 37 7 3 6 2 2 17 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 3.47 93 33 9 20 6 7 18 NYC-Catholic Schoo 5.81 43 8 6 4 7 4 14 NY-I 2.91 165 39 38 32 12 15 29 NY-II 3.48 44 9 7 7 5 6 10 NY-III 2.83 109 26 25 20 18 7 13 NY-IV 3.48 33 11 3 4 4 3 8 NY-V 3.18 96 29 17 13 13 6 18 NY-VI 1.96 37 22 2 3 3 2 5 NY-VIII 3.21 206 43 41 23 34 28 37 NY-IX 3.17 33 13 4 3 2 4 7 NY-X 5.53 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 NY-XI 3.23 183 42 27 32 24 18 40 North Carolina 3.85 328 69 54 48 40 36 81 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 2.81 355 95 75 65 35 23 62 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.26 147 29 29 29 17 13 30 PA-East 3.42 520 111 89 88 60 55 117 PA-Central 3.12 244 65 42 30 34 27 46 PA-West 3.47 160 33 36 19 24 18 30 South Carolina 3.15 210 42 45 44 20 18 41 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.97 199 46 33 27 23 18 52 Texas 3.34 269 58 50 33 35 31 62 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 2.20 122 38 32 16 17 8 11 Vermont 1.94 13 5 4 2 0 1 1 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.50 370 74 75 54 49 34 84 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA-A 3.26 109 19 20 21 11 14 24 West Virginia 4.52 14 4 1 3 1 0 5 Wisconsin 0.72 17 12 2 3 0 0 0 MD-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia-North Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 2.92 7544 1845 1551 1233 971 690 1265 total games............... = 7544 ave error (goals)......... = 2.92 total upsets.............. = 790 % of games within 1 goal.. = 24.46 % of games within 2 goals. = 45.02 % of games within 3 goals. = 61.36 % of games within 4 goals. = 74.23 % of games within 5 goals. = 83.38 % of games > 5 goals. = 16.77
Create a free lacrosse website