Wed Jun 25 16:38:18 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.95 511 117 93 82 80 57 82 NCAA Division II 3.86 420 84 93 61 58 45 79 NCAA Division III 3.07 1730 381 357 256 235 167 334 National Junior C 5.18 210 35 35 25 18 22 75 MCLA Division 1 4.15 760 154 139 118 99 72 178 MCLA Division 2 4.37 692 125 107 94 89 67 210 National College 5.76 550 120 105 84 72 51 118 Great Lakes Lacro 2.50 179 46 42 40 19 11 21 Teams of Interes 20.15 253 36 18 22 18 20 139 Post-Collegiate Le 7.52 193 43 41 31 16 16 46 10.10 87 12 4 9 3 6 53 8.67 24 3 1 4 1 0 15 TOTAL 3.23 5061 1109 999 776 664 496 1023 total games............... = 5061 ave error (goals)......... = 3.23 total upsets.............. = 690 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.91 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.65 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.98 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.10 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.91 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.21
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