Thu Apr 24 10:41:59 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.90 432 98 75 82 65 53 59 NCAA Division II 3.96 378 87 67 63 46 39 76 NCAA Division III 3.01 1539 346 323 245 191 148 286 National Junior C 5.33 195 36 26 24 16 19 74 MCLA Division 1 4.16 675 133 120 114 88 68 152 MCLA Division 2 4.22 605 112 97 80 70 66 180 National College 6.08 496 119 86 86 54 38 113 Great Lakes Lacro 2.31 145 38 40 27 20 8 12 Teams of Interes 20.04 235 36 17 16 14 9 143 Post-Collegiate Le 8.96 115 27 29 18 13 5 23 10.10 87 12 4 9 3 6 53 8.67 24 3 1 4 1 0 15 TOTAL 3.19 4398 994 848 722 541 428 868 total games............... = 4398 ave error (goals)......... = 3.19 total upsets.............. = 562 % of games within 1 goal.. = 22.60 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.88 % of games within 3 goals. = 58.30 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.60 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.33 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.74
Create a free lacrosse website