Wed Apr 16 14:13:46 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 2.98 392 81 74 75 57 43 62 NCAA Division II 4.03 339 73 65 55 56 24 66 NCAA Division III 2.98 1318 309 269 208 165 130 237 National Junior C 5.25 162 28 21 18 23 15 57 MCLA Division 1 4.15 627 132 121 96 87 53 138 MCLA Division 2 4.16 552 107 86 88 65 53 153 National College 6.95 463 112 81 78 55 33 104 Great Lakes Lacro 1.97 127 37 39 29 9 8 5 Teams of Interes 15.02 202 32 16 16 13 14 111 Post-Collegiate Le 8.90 109 34 21 13 17 4 20 10.10 87 12 4 9 3 6 53 8.67 24 3 1 4 1 0 15 TOTAL 3.14 3918 912 755 649 512 350 742 total games............... = 3918 ave error (goals)......... = 3.14 total upsets.............. = 483 % of games within 1 goal.. = 23.28 % of games within 2 goals. = 42.55 % of games within 3 goals. = 59.11 % of games within 4 goals. = 72.18 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.11 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.94
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