Thu Apr 24 21:41:33 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 2.82 780 173 169 134 94 78 132 Women's Division I 4.12 799 157 143 128 93 81 197 Women's Division I 3.32 1866 372 336 308 269 191 390 Women's Community/ 3.11 84 19 10 18 11 8 18 WCLA Division 1 3.50 546 109 106 85 65 48 133 WCLA Division 2 3.34 636 142 99 117 75 53 150 TOTAL 3.06 4155 883 801 716 553 409 795 total games............... = 4155 ave error (goals)......... = 3.06 total upsets.............. = 492 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.25 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.53 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.76 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.07 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.91 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.13
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