Tue May 27 14:43:14 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 2.83 905 205 189 164 114 88 145 Women's Division I 4.01 867 159 164 143 105 81 215 Women's Division I 3.28 2094 419 404 328 294 198 451 Women's Community/ 3.07 100 15 26 20 8 7 24 WCLA Division 1 3.71 578 102 118 91 65 56 146 WCLA Division 2 3.60 662 128 114 115 67 63 175 TOTAL 3.11 4583 943 937 764 593 433 913 total games............... = 4583 ave error (goals)......... = 3.11 total upsets.............. = 555 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.58 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.02 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.69 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.63 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.08 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.92
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