Sat Apr 19 18:34:38 EDT 2014

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 2.80 754 174 160 127 99 71 123 Women's Division I 4.20 769 152 135 113 102 69 198 Women's Division I 3.24 1756 358 309 304 255 171 359 Women's Community/ 3.07 73 16 10 9 19 5 14 WCLA Division 1 3.64 534 108 95 82 63 50 136 WCLA Division 2 3.45 625 139 103 98 75 57 153 TOTAL 3.07 3961 861 748 675 542 380 757 total games............... = 3961 ave error (goals)......... = 3.07 total upsets.............. = 463 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.74 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.62 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.66 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.35 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.94 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.11
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