Thu Sep 17 07:26:24 EDT 2015

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 1 2.91 66 13 13 11 12 7 10 Alabama 2 3.00 60 14 18 6 6 5 11 Arizona AHSLL 3.20 189 45 30 31 24 17 42 Intersectional Ind 5.59 76 8 9 11 8 6 34 California-North C 3.17 491 97 100 73 58 64 99 California-Non-CIF 4.05 168 32 31 17 26 11 51 California-Central 3.44 365 63 66 60 50 38 88 California-Souther 3.19 740 143 147 115 102 80 153 California-San Die 3.05 507 115 99 92 66 37 98 Colorado CHSAA 3.12 579 114 125 94 89 56 101 Connecticut CIAC 3.20 851 177 149 146 119 81 179 Montana 3.90 85 17 10 14 14 7 23 Delaware DIAA 3.25 347 64 58 63 49 47 66 Florida Central/No 3.33 820 164 148 133 106 75 194 Florida South FHSA 3.14 633 138 118 112 67 68 130 Florida Club 3.43 103 19 14 21 14 13 22 Georgia GHSA 6A-5A 3.41 761 158 137 111 102 87 166 Georgia 5A-1A 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New York/Section 6 3.12 35 6 6 5 8 4 6 Idaho IHSLL Divisi 3.64 96 17 14 19 13 4 29 Illinois IHSLA A/B 3.02 761 149 166 123 120 73 130 Illinois IHSLA B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indiana 3.39 381 72 66 56 61 45 81 Kansas 2.92 101 18 25 18 17 10 13 Kentucky 3.46 268 48 42 47 35 33 63 Louisiana LHSLL 4.02 142 19 31 21 16 14 41 Maine MPA 3.06 305 67 46 59 49 34 50 Maryland MIAA- A/D 3.48 209 43 32 38 23 23 50 Maryland MIAA-B 4.11 101 20 14 13 12 11 31 Maryland MIAA-C 4.38 50 9 6 9 6 4 16 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 3.45 346 73 59 59 36 40 79 Maryland MPSSAA 43 3.08 1101 215 242 176 133 117 218 Massachusetts MIAA 3.05 1607 371 290 280 209 157 300 Massachusetts MIAA 3.90 297 61 54 37 26 31 88 Massachusetts MIAA 3.22 244 42 56 39 32 17 58 Michigan MHSAA 3.48 1063 213 204 175 126 106 239 Michigan Club 9.69 47 3 4 3 5 3 29 Illinois Indep Clu 2.91 113 30 21 16 11 16 19 Minnesota MSHSL 2.81 534 128 105 98 60 53 90 Minnesota MBSLA 4.10 101 16 14 13 19 12 27 Missouri MSLA 3.33 242 47 48 30 39 22 56 Nebraska 3.25 80 19 10 9 16 9 17 New England East/N 2.85 434 114 68 77 62 46 67 New England West I 3.75 129 23 23 19 15 17 32 New England West I 3.63 195 41 31 40 14 19 50 New Hampshire NHIA 3.08 405 81 90 61 52 41 80 New Jersey NJISAA/ 3.12 1867 374 365 326 253 191 358 Nevada 3.87 182 33 28 25 23 22 51 New Mexico 3.00 50 8 11 10 9 2 10 New York - NYC Met 2.90 314 67 67 57 45 27 51 New York - Catholi 3.39 209 37 44 36 20 18 54 New York - Section 3.17 485 88 90 92 68 56 91 New York - Section 3.25 277 62 41 54 36 19 65 New York - Section 3.41 369 72 73 44 50 41 89 New York - Section 3.56 158 28 27 25 26 16 36 New York - Section 3.25 347 66 68 53 49 37 74 New York - Section 3.31 302 56 47 50 49 36 64 New York - Section 2.71 433 100 85 84 70 42 52 New York - Section 3.03 205 43 38 41 31 10 42 New York - Section 3.61 66 15 7 10 7 10 17 New York - Section 3.22 418 81 72 73 63 40 89 North Carolina NCH 3.38 800 156 155 127 107 87 168 North Carolina NCI 3.65 217 30 50 34 27 14 62 North Carolina Clu 4.33 126 17 22 22 16 9 40 South Dakota 5.12 8 3 0 0 2 0 3 Ohio OHSLA Divisio 3.77 1100 203 176 169 151 127 274 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Club 5.41 318 37 40 34 31 30 146 Oklahoma 3.79 113 22 20 19 14 5 33 Oregon OHSLA 3.06 468 114 83 75 52 46 98 Pennsylvania East 3.30 859 192 136 146 96 88 201 Pennsylvania IAC/P 3.68 195 32 37 32 26 17 51 Pennsylvania West 3.05 399 88 83 58 45 41 84 Pennsylvania Centr 3.15 542 105 105 93 86 60 93 Rhode Island RILL 3.03 230 49 50 31 33 22 45 South Carolina SCH 3.51 330 48 56 50 62 42 72 Tennessee TSLA 3.32 241 42 46 43 32 30 48 Tennessee ITD 3.39 89 20 15 11 10 14 19 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.94 326 57 53 44 40 33 99 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.87 415 83 72 61 46 40 113 Utah UHSLL 3.05 398 83 82 68 49 33 83 Vermont I 3.20 133 23 31 21 13 16 29 Vermont II 2.93 145 27 28 27 22 17 24 Virginia VHSL 4A/5 3.08 779 175 133 143 107 85 136 Wyoming 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia VISAA Pri 4.22 188 22 33 28 21 21 63 Virginia VISAA Pri 3.95 194 40 20 33 26 24 51 VA VSHL West/West- 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA Non VHSL Club 3.95 185 28 39 28 22 21 47 Washington I 3.53 320 61 60 56 36 29 78 Washington II 3.72 337 64 54 57 41 30 91 Wisconsin 2.91 337 63 85 52 43 40 54 Idaho IHSLL Divisi 2.89 89 18 16 16 14 12 13 Canada East 2.62 438 128 93 67 49 34 67 West Virginia WVSL 3.96 137 26 22 24 16 6 43 Mississippi 5.52 25 4 1 5 4 0 11 Canada West 3.19 103 14 24 27 16 6 16 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.18 29839 6194 5683 5018 3986 3027 5958 total games............... = 29839 ave error (goals)......... = 3.18 total upsets.............. = 3431 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.76 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.80 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.62 % of games within 4 goals. = 69.98 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.12 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.97
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