Wed Jun 17 11:00:55 EDT 2015

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 3.05 522 105 106 97 74 44 96 NCAA Division II 3.85 464 103 79 82 68 44 88 NCAA Division III 3.09 1778 382 351 288 238 169 350 National Junior C 4.22 209 27 39 27 32 19 65 MCLA Division 1 3.72 703 137 139 114 85 71 157 MCLA Division 2 4.20 765 151 136 109 98 70 201 National College 4.50 553 130 116 79 70 42 116 Great Lakes Lacro 2.52 164 43 27 36 31 11 16 Teams of Interes 30.60 206 25 17 14 6 13 131 Post-Collegiate Le 5.17 152 27 30 26 21 16 32 Canadian Univ. F 6.63 102 18 14 19 9 10 32 Maritime Univ. F 4.02 34 7 4 5 6 4 8 TOTAL 3.25 5262 1117 1020 859 695 490 1087 total games............... = 5262 ave error (goals)......... = 3.25 total upsets.............. = 761 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.23 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.61 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.94 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.14 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.46 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.66
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