Thu Sep 1 19:16:39 EDT 2016

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 1 3.35 63 9 10 18 7 8 11 Alabama 2 3.62 67 10 9 13 12 5 18 Arizona AHSLL 3.43 151 23 27 30 22 19 30 Intersectional Ind 10.14 73 4 7 2 1 4 55 California-North C 3.07 523 114 114 78 67 64 86 California-Non-CIF 3.15 138 24 26 31 16 16 25 California-Central 3.21 348 84 68 47 49 34 66 California-Souther 3.07 764 168 158 115 92 80 151 California-San Die 3.02 541 129 105 76 77 51 103 Colorado CHSAA 3.15 584 124 119 94 66 62 119 Connecticut CIAC 2.95 880 190 183 150 104 96 157 Montana 3.27 84 17 18 15 10 8 16 Delaware DIAA 3.21 350 59 82 68 35 33 73 Florida Central/No 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Florida FHSAA 3.19 1405 288 271 242 170 134 300 Florida Club 2.85 108 26 18 21 12 14 17 Georgia GHSA 6A-5A 3.55 813 156 158 116 115 82 186 Georgia Club NGLL 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New York/Section 6 3.74 36 5 2 10 5 5 9 Idaho IHSLL Divisi 3.91 88 9 13 16 18 10 22 Illinois IHSLA A/B 3.06 827 162 173 155 104 82 151 Illinois IHSLA B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indiana 3.40 415 85 70 73 42 45 100 Kansas 3.11 126 32 25 17 16 6 30 Kentucky 3.78 284 50 58 44 30 26 76 Louisiana LHSLL 3.85 154 32 34 18 16 10 44 Maine MPA 3.55 312 50 63 39 47 30 83 Maryland MIAA- A/D 4.01 231 40 39 30 35 19 68 Maryland MIAA-B 4.34 101 21 16 13 11 5 35 Maryland MIAA-C 4.97 67 16 10 7 8 1 25 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 4.13 322 60 54 44 35 27 102 Maryland MPSSAA 43 3.12 1141 242 215 192 150 127 215 Massachusetts MIAA 2.99 2068 426 421 344 283 208 386 Massachusetts MIAA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Massachusetts MIAA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Michigan MHSAA 3.52 1081 219 204 150 135 123 250 Michigan Club 6.74 68 13 4 8 7 2 34 Illinois Indep Clu 3.30 100 20 20 15 11 12 22 Minnesota MSHSL 3.22 573 112 117 84 78 64 118 Minnesota MBSLA 3.53 66 16 8 11 8 7 16 Missouri MSLA 3.36 260 54 44 37 32 32 61 Nebraska 3.40 81 15 10 12 15 11 18 New England East/N 3.33 439 82 89 66 67 40 95 New England West I 4.90 127 18 18 15 19 10 47 New England West I 4.05 211 37 37 39 21 18 59 New Hampshire NHIA 3.20 415 85 70 67 59 41 93 New Jersey NJISAA/ 3.17 1903 394 367 330 226 183 403 Nevada 3.24 185 38 43 30 18 13 43 New Mexico 2.66 58 15 17 5 7 5 9 New York - Ivy/NYS 3.35 295 68 59 42 35 27 64 New York - Catholi 3.31 217 41 50 37 22 18 49 New York - Section 3.22 494 92 104 69 66 59 104 New York - Section 3.01 283 52 60 50 45 29 47 New York - Section 3.39 369 69 62 59 50 40 89 New York - Section 3.76 163 31 31 17 21 17 46 New York - Section 3.65 352 57 54 61 51 41 88 New York - Section 3.44 293 53 48 57 43 30 62 New York - Section 2.92 443 92 99 77 55 45 75 New York - Section 3.20 189 43 25 32 28 22 39 New York - Section 4.25 67 16 11 4 9 2 25 New York - Section 2.90 409 78 90 74 58 44 65 North Carolina NCH 3.33 875 163 163 139 125 91 194 North Carolina NCI 3.56 247 49 45 36 29 21 67 North Carolina Clu 4.05 137 27 20 18 20 6 46 South Dakota-Dakot 3.25 41 9 6 5 7 5 9 Ohio OHSLA Divisio 3.80 1239 256 223 192 166 111 291 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio OHSLA Club 11.50 104 5 3 8 1 4 83 Oklahoma 3.70 128 33 22 12 9 15 37 Oregon OHSLA 3.21 464 92 77 74 77 54 90 Pennsylvania East 3.02 889 173 175 165 126 110 140 Pennsylvania IAC/P 3.57 197 35 46 31 24 14 47 Pennsylvania West 3.38 398 80 79 62 54 36 87 Pennsylvania Centr 3.53 557 91 92 103 73 67 131 Rhode Island RILL 3.18 271 55 52 43 34 27 60 South Carolina SCH 3.11 341 78 60 47 51 44 61 Tennessee TSLA Div 3.91 164 30 27 21 21 20 45 Tennessee TSLA Div 3.76 211 30 37 29 29 20 66 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.30 335 74 63 48 39 41 70 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.46 446 82 77 72 67 45 103 Utah UHSLL 3.14 380 78 70 74 45 44 69 Vermont I 3.48 136 29 20 25 16 13 33 Vermont II-III 3.04 161 38 30 29 25 13 26 Virginia VHSL 4A/5 3.36 839 157 151 137 110 94 190 Wyoming 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia VISAA Pri 4.76 189 18 30 17 26 26 72 Virginia VISAA Pri 4.97 226 31 30 19 27 27 92 Washington DC - WI 4.56 32 8 2 5 4 0 13 VA Non VHSL Club 3.74 154 33 22 24 16 16 43 Washington I 5.54 408 55 52 46 46 30 179 Washington II 6.12 359 39 40 33 37 34 176 Wisconsin 3.14 378 68 79 72 55 25 79 Idaho IHSLL Divisi 3.30 117 19 17 25 17 15 24 Canada East 2.60 548 166 107 103 63 41 68 West Virginia WVSL 3.26 129 18 33 21 17 14 26 Mississippi 1.60 7 4 1 0 1 0 1 Canada West 2.55 81 21 12 14 19 6 9 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.22 30766 6318 5961 5036 4046 3139 6288 total games............... = 30766 ave error (goals)......... = 3.22 total upsets.............. = 3780 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.54 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.91 % of games within 3 goals. = 56.28 % of games within 4 goals. = 69.43 % of games within 5 goals. = 79.63 % of games > 5 goals. = 20.44
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