Sun Jun 19 08:14:07 EDT 2016

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 3.27 533 111 100 77 75 59 111 NCAA Division II 3.43 506 105 96 82 64 44 115 NCAA Division III 3.07 1849 361 395 315 258 189 331 National Junior C 4.98 224 37 34 25 29 19 80 MCLA Division 1 4.28 698 119 111 97 76 75 220 MCLA Division 2 4.85 851 140 134 114 101 77 285 National College 4.96 606 130 124 91 88 49 124 Great Lakes Lacro 2.90 187 45 43 30 26 18 25 Teams of Interes 32.11 157 24 10 7 5 6 105 Post-Collegiate Le 2.99 149 33 30 26 21 9 30 Canadian Univ. F 14.82 97 27 21 13 12 5 19 Maritime Univ. F 4.42 35 5 5 5 4 5 11 Maryland Masters 3.72 92 18 17 14 8 11 24 Maryland Grand Ma 3.18 37 7 7 7 5 4 7 TOTAL 3.34 5583 1131 1086 875 746 547 1202 total games............... = 5583 ave error (goals)......... = 3.34 total upsets.............. = 781 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.26 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.71 % of games within 3 goals. = 55.38 % of games within 4 goals. = 68.74 % of games within 5 goals. = 78.54 % of games > 5 goals. = 21.53
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