Tue May 31 13:11:19 EDT 2016

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 3.08 986 200 190 152 146 105 193 Women's Division I 3.15 1077 213 223 175 137 117 212 Women's Division I 3.10 2288 443 466 415 280 247 437 Women's Community/ 3.29 117 27 14 25 17 9 25 WCLA Division 1 3.78 516 106 104 77 54 52 123 WCLA Division 2 3.05 629 139 136 99 82 68 105 TOTAL 3.04 4949 1019 1014 835 628 526 929 total games............... = 4949 ave error (goals)......... = 3.04 total upsets.............. = 625 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.59 % of games within 2 goals. = 41.08 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.95 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.64 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.27 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.77
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