Mon Nov 27 17:11:45 UTC 2017

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.95 136 25 23 19 20 14 35 Alabama 2 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Arizona AHSLL 3.47 168 46 34 22 17 15 34 Intersectional Ind 8.79 81 6 5 7 1 1 61 California-North C 3.27 554 111 108 87 62 64 122 California-Non-CIF 3.23 147 33 19 18 31 16 30 California-Central 3.27 332 72 65 47 41 36 71 California-Souther 3.11 829 169 159 153 103 78 167 California-San Die 3.05 548 136 71 102 83 50 106 Colorado CHSAA 3.89 607 106 104 99 78 60 160 Connecticut CIAC 3.15 888 173 190 142 127 62 194 Montana 4.24 73 11 12 11 12 9 18 Delaware DIAA 3.57 352 63 61 58 49 33 88 Florida Central/No 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Florida FHSAA 3.48 1531 288 276 243 192 164 368 Florida Club 3.10 93 20 17 15 14 9 18 Georgia GHSA 7A-6A 3.51 879 167 166 130 129 75 212 Georgia Club NGLL 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New York/Section 6 3.52 31 6 5 5 1 4 10 Idaho IHSLL 3.80 215 33 37 29 26 23 67 Illinois IHSLA A/B 2.97 790 163 163 137 103 87 137 Illinois IHSLA B 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indiana 3.55 431 85 80 60 54 46 106 Kansas 3.97 122 18 18 16 18 15 37 Kentucky 3.58 318 59 66 44 32 35 82 Louisiana LHSLL 3.42 168 26 29 28 29 19 37 Maine MPA 3.33 315 63 57 45 44 25 81 Maryland MIAA- A/D 3.79 230 45 41 36 20 21 67 Maryland MIAA-B 4.39 111 16 20 14 8 14 39 Maryland MIAA-C 4.48 78 15 11 12 9 6 25 Maryland MILL/MAC/ 3.83 324 49 65 59 26 37 88 Maryland MPSSAA 43 3.43 1219 225 245 199 142 111 297 Massachusetts MIAA 3.06 2133 465 400 367 283 192 426 Massachusetts MIAA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Massachusetts MIAA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Michigan MHSAA 3.13 1148 247 209 195 138 134 225 Michigan Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Illinois Indep Clu 2.54 86 24 17 17 10 7 11 Minnesota MSHSL 3.13 589 127 120 88 78 69 107 Minnesota MBSLA 3.74 36 7 6 2 7 5 9 Missouri MSLA 3.12 274 53 59 43 35 34 50 Nebraska 3.19 85 14 23 15 8 6 19 New England East/N 3.15 428 95 69 73 64 45 82 New England West I 4.55 136 21 17 19 15 15 49 New England West I 4.06 220 37 31 39 29 19 65 New Hampshire NHIA 3.11 427 88 82 76 48 44 89 New Jersey NJISAA/ 3.13 1890 386 381 313 262 184 364 Nevada 3.96 215 38 40 19 28 26 64 New Mexico 3.59 55 16 9 10 4 4 12 New York - Ivy/NYS 3.32 256 58 51 29 38 24 56 New York - Catholi 3.54 214 33 44 37 27 20 53 New York - Section 3.18 506 98 101 80 87 46 94 New York - Section 3.15 269 59 47 46 34 30 53 New York - Section 3.56 370 77 63 63 39 35 93 New York - Section 3.73 165 30 32 15 22 21 45 New York - Section 3.32 359 82 61 47 42 48 79 New York - Section 3.38 298 59 63 49 29 39 59 New York - Section 2.83 440 95 89 87 58 37 74 New York - Section 3.52 182 34 35 27 20 21 45 New York - Section 4.76 71 9 11 12 12 6 21 New York - Section 3.09 408 85 82 63 50 50 78 North Carolina NCH 3.52 871 153 146 150 124 91 207 North Carolina NCI 3.54 240 50 35 53 26 20 56 North Carolina Clu 4.32 120 15 17 16 15 16 41 South Dakota-Dakot 3.66 31 3 4 8 3 2 11 Ohio OHSAA Divisio 3.29 1309 269 231 204 171 150 284 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oklahoma 3.80 108 13 24 18 14 12 27 Oregon OHSLA 3.01 446 105 70 83 65 41 82 Pennsylvania East 3.20 914 204 162 165 105 87 191 Pennsylvania IAC/P 3.56 191 36 35 26 25 21 48 Pennsylvania West 3.64 411 84 70 59 58 35 105 Pennsylvania Centr 3.49 603 130 98 97 71 58 149 Rhode Island RILL 3.06 261 59 51 39 38 24 50 South Carolina SCH 3.52 377 72 66 52 50 38 99 Tennessee TSLA Div 3.95 166 35 31 15 26 11 48 Tennessee TSLA Div 4.51 207 27 31 23 28 21 77 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.60 344 71 53 55 38 31 96 Texas THSLL Divisi 3.81 484 77 71 73 78 59 126 Utah UHSLL 3.16 375 87 77 53 55 36 67 Vermont I 3.65 128 22 24 22 12 14 34 Vermont II-III 3.18 139 26 28 27 15 16 27 Virginia VHSL 4A/5 3.42 832 160 155 126 112 90 189 Wyoming 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia VISAA Pri 5.25 197 27 24 27 18 17 84 Virginia VISAA Pri 5.50 209 27 21 27 22 15 97 Washington DC - WI 5.71 38 3 1 7 5 5 17 VA Non VHSL Club 4.19 179 24 28 31 22 17 57 Washington WHSBLA 3.53 655 120 102 104 97 75 157 Washington II 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wisconsin 3.25 361 75 61 55 56 42 72 Idaho IHSLL Divisi 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada East 2.26 445 142 100 81 49 29 44 West Virginia WVSL 3.55 144 30 28 23 14 10 39 Mississippi 4.09 15 4 1 2 2 0 6 Canada West 3.67 75 15 12 11 12 8 17 Hawaii - Aloha Lea 2.35 14 4 1 5 2 1 1 TOTAL 3.26 31226 6427 5857 5100 4088 3144 6635 total games............... = 31226 ave error (goals)......... = 3.26 total upsets.............. = 3675 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.58 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.34 % of games within 3 goals. = 55.67 % of games within 4 goals. = 68.76 % of games within 5 goals. = 78.83 % of games > 5 goals. = 21.25
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