Wed Apr 18 08:13:54 UTC 2018

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.25 92 15 20 21 8 12 16 CA-North Coast Sec 3.32 506 102 93 98 50 42 121 CA-San Diego Secti 3.18 454 100 79 84 55 31 105 Arizona 2.79 43 9 12 5 6 5 6 CA-Cntrl Coast Sec 2.95 256 65 49 38 27 28 49 CA-Club 3.48 57 6 11 7 15 8 10 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL-West Club 3.17 41 10 6 6 7 3 9 CA-South 3.23 635 113 130 108 84 65 135 CA-Central 2.90 46 9 11 9 6 0 11 Colorado 3.15 401 91 70 57 55 44 84 Connecticut 2.89 529 122 109 90 73 52 83 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 3.27 216 48 37 33 31 16 51 FL-FHSAA 3.53 1149 213 225 174 150 108 279 FL-Ocean Springs 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia 3.78 775 134 140 114 101 80 206 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Idaho 1.60 16 7 5 1 0 3 0 Illinois 3.13 501 98 103 99 67 47 87 Indiana 3.11 225 45 39 38 42 23 38 PA-District 1 3.65 650 135 105 96 88 62 164 Kansas 3.81 69 15 7 11 7 9 20 Kentucky 3.21 194 36 38 32 36 15 37 Maine 2.84 260 61 52 51 36 26 34 DC Area 3.23 281 63 53 47 33 24 61 IAAM-A 2.85 156 36 36 21 19 21 23 IAAM-B 3.69 57 16 6 8 9 7 11 IAAM-C 2.79 79 22 11 16 10 7 13 MD-Private 4.46 84 14 10 12 15 9 24 MD-Public 3.44 834 165 154 139 101 79 196 Massachusetts 3.15 1868 401 365 272 258 198 374 Michigan 3.34 674 125 111 121 92 72 153 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota 3.02 528 108 100 100 80 51 89 MN-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri 3.27 313 63 60 54 47 26 63 Nevada 2.62 104 25 23 21 13 7 15 New Mexico 3.62 5 1 0 1 0 1 2 New England Prep 3.07 485 85 120 82 58 49 91 Rhode Island 3.01 187 44 31 36 25 15 36 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Hampshire 3.08 365 82 68 49 62 41 63 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NJ Public 3.23 1897 404 338 297 246 195 417 NJ Prep 4.89 97 6 16 18 18 15 24 NY-Section VII 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYC-Metro Schools 2.77 175 36 49 29 18 14 29 NYC-Catholic Schoo 2.65 40 10 7 6 7 3 7 NY-I 3.02 491 124 95 73 63 41 95 NY-II 3.66 169 38 24 22 18 19 48 NY-III 3.38 351 60 58 59 58 35 81 NY-IV 3.24 90 19 16 11 13 11 20 NY-V 3.25 276 44 59 44 41 29 59 NY-VI 3.06 258 50 63 32 38 26 49 NY-VIII 2.97 459 85 95 97 58 49 75 NY-IX 3.09 163 33 34 26 20 14 36 NY-X 2.96 47 12 8 8 8 4 7 NY-XI 3.22 378 81 64 63 48 37 85 North Carolina 3.62 613 117 105 93 80 57 161 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NC-Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio 3.19 1133 230 221 193 145 111 233 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oregon 3.24 337 67 64 49 48 37 72 PA-East 3.81 379 70 62 62 48 38 99 PA-Central 3.52 500 92 92 83 55 50 128 PA-West 3.21 382 95 70 52 49 34 82 South Carolina 3.26 266 50 51 48 36 23 58 Arkansas 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 3.94 326 58 58 47 34 30 99 Texas 3.11 309 67 62 52 40 23 65 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utah 2.95 210 52 41 31 25 24 37 Vermont 3.04 171 38 37 26 16 25 29 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Virginia 3.50 1028 190 188 158 157 96 239 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 spare 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA 3.26 220 46 52 23 37 23 39 West Virginia 3.14 58 10 13 13 7 7 8 Wisconsin 3.23 202 37 43 36 24 23 39 Canada East 6.88 18 9 0 0 1 0 8 Canada West 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 3.11 17927 3761 3534 2958 2405 1782 3504 total games............... = 17927 ave error (goals)......... = 3.11 total upsets.............. = 2093 % of games within 1 goal.. = 20.98 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.69 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.19 % of games within 4 goals. = 70.61 % of games within 5 goals. = 80.55 % of games > 5 goals. = 19.55
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