Sun Jul 1 20:21:21 UTC 2018

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Alabama 3.27 105 16 22 18 12 13 24 AL Misc 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AZ AHSLL 3.15 154 30 32 29 18 17 28 Indep 3.61 40 9 9 6 4 0 12 CA No Coast 3.32 524 96 83 108 65 58 114 CA Club 3.86 138 23 21 20 22 11 41 CA Cntrl Coast 3.38 316 60 51 44 46 50 65 CA Southern 3.15 856 188 151 135 110 110 162 CA San Diego 3.21 564 108 103 79 91 78 105 CO CHSAA 3.14 595 127 98 106 80 69 115 CT CIAC 3.06 881 187 163 151 133 86 161 Montana 4.11 57 12 4 13 2 4 22 DE DIAA 3.21 359 77 73 47 45 36 81 FL Cntrl/No 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FL FHSAA 3.32 1552 326 285 244 199 141 357 FL Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA GHSA 3.18 882 178 163 149 118 91 183 GA Club NGLL 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NY Sec VI Indep 2.43 21 5 3 7 3 1 2 ID IHSLL 3.45 227 43 40 35 38 18 53 IL IHSA 3.09 798 164 157 129 127 66 155 IL Misc 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indiana 3.31 449 89 92 67 62 36 103 Kansas 2.87 133 27 30 22 23 12 19 Kentucky 3.12 310 66 59 42 47 29 67 LA LHSLL 3.59 159 34 20 21 16 19 49 ME MPA 3.05 329 63 64 64 44 38 56 MD MIAA A/DC-IAC 2.80 224 52 52 31 34 19 36 MD MIAA B 2.81 77 20 15 11 13 8 10 MD MIAA C 3.43 90 22 17 10 13 7 21 MD MILL/MAC/WCAC 2.95 303 79 63 54 27 22 58 MD MPSSAA 4321 3.16 1175 277 197 203 146 109 243 MA MIAA East/Cntrl 2.96 2097 458 417 351 292 212 367 MA MIAA Cntrl 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MA MIAA West 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI MHSAA 3.13 1108 227 221 194 142 93 231 MI Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IL Indep Club 4.26 74 13 14 13 7 6 21 MN MSHSL 3.10 570 115 112 101 72 55 115 MN MBSLA 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MO MSLA 3.40 277 51 49 45 38 30 64 Nebraska 3.14 71 20 9 12 13 4 13 NE East/No/ISL 2.83 467 109 98 80 61 48 71 NE West I 2.64 138 36 33 19 16 15 19 NE West II-III 3.05 212 54 40 32 30 21 35 NH NHIAA I-II-III 3.10 412 82 81 72 47 45 85 NJ NJISAA/Pri 2.95 1926 426 366 347 267 194 326 Nevada 4.30 134 16 21 16 18 15 48 New Mexico 3.00 54 12 12 5 6 8 11 NY Ivy/PSAL/PSAA/N 3.12 250 59 43 43 35 25 45 NY CHSAA 3.38 200 39 43 30 24 22 42 NY Sec I 3.04 480 94 100 84 62 49 91 NY Sec II 3.32 272 49 42 53 40 31 57 NY Sec III 3.09 374 86 62 65 36 51 74 NY Sec IV 3.25 169 40 20 29 26 21 33 NY Sec V 3.16 344 77 55 68 49 24 71 NY Sec VI 3.25 308 59 57 53 42 34 63 NY Sec VIII 2.86 432 99 84 71 71 35 72 NY Sec IX 3.16 180 34 32 30 30 21 33 NY Sec X 3.92 73 17 9 7 10 7 23 NY Sec XI 2.89 407 78 98 69 56 32 74 NC NCHSAA 3.41 876 184 160 134 104 88 206 NC NCISAA 3.10 229 59 41 37 23 23 46 NC Club 3.91 93 25 8 15 13 6 26 SD PL 2.68 36 10 8 3 5 4 6 OH OHSAA D1-2 3.26 1340 272 266 210 177 140 275 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHSLA Local Playof 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OH Club 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oklahoma 3.49 72 14 14 7 11 9 17 OR OHSLA 3.24 447 87 91 68 55 50 96 PA East PIAA 3.10 857 211 153 130 122 92 149 PA IAC/Pri 4.01 177 37 27 27 30 14 42 PA WPIAL 3.51 395 75 79 65 45 38 93 PA Cntrl PIAA 3.14 619 135 109 115 76 59 125 RI RILL 3.27 270 53 50 34 36 41 56 SC SCHSL/SCILL/SCI 3.15 363 67 70 67 43 38 78 TN TSLA D1 3.15 260 48 56 48 35 20 53 TN TSLA D2 3.30 114 22 25 18 12 12 25 TX THSLL 1 3.08 339 80 50 61 38 44 66 TX THSLL 2 2.95 485 123 83 82 63 41 93 Utah UHSLL 3.10 388 85 67 70 55 34 77 VT DI 2.98 136 33 23 24 17 14 25 VT DII 2.81 108 30 19 18 17 6 18 VA VHSL 4A/5A/6A 3.06 890 180 190 150 105 99 166 Wyoming 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VA VISAA 1/2 3.18 333 80 57 50 45 37 64 VA VISAA 2 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DC WILL 3.44 31 4 7 7 4 1 8 VA Club 3.71 150 25 26 18 28 11 42 WA WHSBLA 3.40 643 130 119 94 79 55 166 WA Misc 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wisconsin 3.12 330 72 64 52 43 31 68 ID Misc 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada East 2.06 258 90 62 38 29 21 18 WV WVSLA 3.60 128 27 19 23 10 17 32 Mississippi 3.44 14 4 3 2 1 0 4 Canada West 2.80 75 25 12 6 9 11 12 HI Aloha 2.95 19 4 4 3 3 2 3 TOTAL 3.06 28811 6261 5490 4834 3873 2908 5468 total games............... = 28811 ave error (goals)......... = 3.06 total upsets.............. = 3460 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.73 % of games within 2 goals. = 40.79 % of games within 3 goals. = 57.56 % of games within 4 goals. = 71.01 % of games within 5 goals. = 81.10 % of games > 5 goals. = 18.98
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