Mon May 21 01:56:46 UTC 2018

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 3.04 538 115 110 97 68 52 96 NCAA Division II 3.73 548 104 100 95 82 50 117 NCAA Division III 3.44 1954 377 358 324 260 202 433 National Junior C 5.08 155 28 24 18 24 10 51 MCLA Division 1 4.02 614 120 94 95 90 57 158 MCLA Division 2 4.54 564 93 72 71 71 54 203 National College 6.99 521 147 91 83 60 52 88 Great Lakes Lacro 2.18 144 44 36 29 18 7 10 Teams of Interes 18.14 80 10 4 6 6 10 44 NAIA 6.01 219 47 35 28 18 16 75 8.04 94 19 8 2 6 5 54 10.36 33 2 2 2 0 2 25 TOTAL 3.41 5007 1053 898 819 673 480 1090 total games............... = 5007 ave error (goals)......... = 3.41 total upsets.............. = 718 % of games within 1 goal.. = 21.03 % of games within 2 goals. = 38.97 % of games within 3 goals. = 55.32 % of games within 4 goals. = 68.76 % of games within 5 goals. = 78.35 % of games > 5 goals. = 21.77
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