Wed May 30 16:58:44 UTC 2018

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 3.25 1030 208 168 166 146 120 222 Women's Division I 3.63 1190 223 210 175 156 120 306 Women's Division I 3.57 2358 432 396 398 328 205 599 Women's Community/ 4.56 76 11 10 9 9 5 32 WCLA Division 1 4.27 470 80 75 65 63 43 144 WCLA Division 2 4.21 494 107 79 74 67 47 120 TOTAL 3.37 4613 884 792 753 661 448 1077 total games............... = 4613 ave error (goals)......... = 3.37 total upsets.............. = 550 % of games within 1 goal.. = 19.16 % of games within 2 goals. = 36.33 % of games within 3 goals. = 52.66 % of games within 4 goals. = 66.98 % of games within 5 goals. = 76.70 % of games > 5 goals. = 23.35
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