Sun May 20 23:01:30 UTC 2018

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 Women's Division I 3.25 1027 206 169 165 146 122 219 Women's Division I 3.64 1190 221 213 174 156 120 306 Women's Division I 3.58 2355 429 395 402 323 206 600 Women's Community/ 4.56 76 11 10 9 9 5 32 WCLA Division 1 4.27 470 80 75 65 63 43 144 WCLA Division 2 4.21 494 107 79 74 67 47 120 TOTAL 3.37 4615 884 792 755 657 452 1077 total games............... = 4615 ave error (goals)......... = 3.37 total upsets.............. = 549 % of games within 1 goal.. = 19.15 % of games within 2 goals. = 36.32 % of games within 3 goals. = 52.68 % of games within 4 goals. = 66.91 % of games within 5 goals. = 76.71 % of games > 5 goals. = 23.34
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